Monday 5 July 2004

No balls?

The Straits Times | JULY 5, 2004
C-word gives Umno leaders the jitters
The word 'contest' is on many lips but any bid to challenge incumbents for top party posts is being nipped in the bud

By Reme Ahmad

KUALA LUMPUR - One word causes much nervousness among Umno leaders these days: contest.

It's a word that has been on many lips as the party's 191 divisions hunker down for key elections and nominations from next weekend onwards.

The process culminates in a General Assembly where delegates will vote in the senior rungs of party leadership.

Datuk Rafidah Aziz, the chief of the Umno women's division (Wanita), precipitated the debate on contests when she said those who had just joined the wing should not contest for posts until three years later.

Her comments were aimed at former members of the young women's division (Puteri Unmo) clamouring to challenge her leadership.

The Wanita and Puteri wings have not seen eye to eye for several years. Puteri members have no option but to join Wanita once they turn 35.

Datuk Rafidah's point was that bitter fights could split Malaysia's biggest party.

But that did not sit well with party elders, who said contests were healthy proof that democracy was alive in Umno.

That view prevailed until former finance minister Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah shattered the calm once again with the C-word.

The Kelantan prince hinted last Thursday that if he mustered enough support, he was ready to stand against the party president, Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, or the No. 2, Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak.

This caused a stir because the Umno Supreme Council, the party's highest decision-making body, had ruled that Datuk Seri Abdullah and his deputy would not be challenged for their seats.

'If there are those who feel that I can still serve and contribute to the party, why not? If there are nominations, I will offer myself for a post that suits me,' Tengku Razaleigh said.

Almost always enigmatic in his political aspirations in the last few years, he declined to say which post he was aiming for. But to many, the hint was clear enough.

He uttered another political blasphemy in these days of party amity and unity bolstered by the massive win in March general election.

He said it was time to kill a 17-year-old rule that blocks a leader from contesting key party posts unless he gets nominated by many divisions.

This rule sets a quota of divisional nominations that candidates for different posts must obtain before they can enter the ring.

Those aiming to be president must get at least 30 per cent of nominations, those standing for the post of deputy president must secure 20 per cent and finally those wanting the vice-president posts must secure 10 per cent of the nominations.

But this time, party elders who had cheered for democracy and forced Datuk Seri Rafidah to back down turned against Tengku Razaleigh.

Free-for-all contests could split the party, they declared.

'There is no reason and justification to change leaders at this point because the people have given a big mandate to the leadership,' said incumbent Umno vice-president Muhammad Muhammad Taib.

These leaders have long memories.

They pointed to the 1987 Umno presidential fight between Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Tengku Razaleigh which split the party into two.

The prince bolted with thousands to form a splinter party, Semangat 46, that helped Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) wrest Kelantan away from Umno in 1990.

It was this bitter Mahathir-Razaleigh fight that led to the party's quota rule.

The prince has since rejoined Umno and Semangat 46 has been shut down.

Both Datuk Seri Abdullah and his deputy said members could decide if they wanted to scrap the quota system.

To some, the nervousness about contests showed that Umno was less than democratic as it blocked challenges even from a 66-year-old prince - described in a New Straits Times column as 'yesterday's man'.

Said a grassroots leader: 'Datuk Seri Abdullah will win hands down even if there is a contest. So why is everyone so worried about a fight?'

To this, a columnist in government-friendly Berita Minggu said: 'Even with the quota system, those who are qualified would not be stopped. Only aspiring candidates who are doubtful in their capabilities in getting nominations would feel uneasy and worried.'

The debate continues.


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Copyright @ 2004 Singapore Press Holdings. All rights reserved.

Up north

Am at Sg 2 outside Universiti Sains Malaysia. Was in KL over the weekend to visit my friends. Will be going to Gurun on Wednesday to visit friend in Modenas before proceeding to Padang Besar. Will be back to KL for the weekend before taking the bus to Singapore on Monday.

Nice to be back in USM ...

Impressive Indonesia

Today the entire nation of Indonesia goes to polls to select their president. Wish them the best of luck, as Indonesia's stability are important to this region.
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The Straits Times | JULY 5, 2004
Polls not a clear-cut affair?
Just months ago, there was a clear front runner; now the fear is that Indonesia's direct presidential polls could get messy

By Derwin Pereira

JAKARTA - Makeshift bamboo shelters and grand marquees in cheerful colours of red, blue, green and yellow have sprouted all over Indonesia.

The 582,000 polling stations that dot the archipelago will open this morning for Indonesians to vote in the country's first direct presidential election. The electorate runs the gamut from illiterate tribesman in Irian Jaya and Kalimantan to farmers in Java and Sumatra and the young rich in the capital, Jakarta.

About 150 million voters across the 17,000 islands that sprawl 4,800km from west to east - the distance from London to Mecca - will decide who will be the next head of state in the one-day ballot.

But any hope for an early resolution to the protracted election saga is fast dimming. The prospect of a September run-off looms large as the country edges perilously towards an uncertain three-month hiatus.

With no constitutional provision for a smooth transfer of power if President Megawati Sukarnoputri loses this week, Indonesia faces the prospect of an outgoing administration digging in its heels for a bitter fight to the end of its term on Oct 20.

Intensive horse-trading will be needed to forge coalitions aimed at producing an electoral outcome or giving the incumbent and her loyalists ironclad guarantees against recrimination if they are ousted.

At the worst, it could lead to what some believe could be a 'scorched earth' strategy in which the remaining elements of the regime would blur their tracks by destroying important state documents, moving millions of dollars worth of national assets and sealing last-minute business deals.

Against this backdrop, violence could rear its ugly head. Clashes between rival supporters could erupt, especially if the President faces a leadership challenge from members of her own party.

Golkar deputy chairman Marzuki Darusman described the next 90 days as 'a muddling transition' that would be messy and painful for the loser, the winner and all Indonesians.

'With the benefit of hindsight, legislators should have come out with clear guidelines,' he said.

'But can you blame them? When the laws were drawn up last year, no one expected the incumbent to lose. She was a clear front runner. The assumption then was that it would all end in the first round with her winning a majority.'

Unfortunately, the past five months have seen Ms Megawati's political star waning. Following the disastrous defeat of her Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) in the April parliamentary elections, she has fallen further in the popularity charts.

But some argue she still has a good chance of getting into the second round. In that scenario, observers like Mr Marzuki believe the palace will 'go for the kill' to stay in power.

'She will step up into higher gear, drawing on the entire state machinery to do her bidding. It will be a period of heightened activism and coalition-building where getting re-elected will be the only preoccupation of the government,' he said.

Of greater concern, however, would be a scenario in which Mega crashes out in the first round.

Her failure to get into the second phase could force those in power to make things difficult for the president-in-waiting.

Dr Joyo Winoto, a senior adviser to presidential front runner Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, told The Straits Times: 'Our concern is that there might be three months of lame-duck government where the focus will be on its own survival.'

He listed a number of outcomes that could occur during such a period, such as:


International confidence in Indonesia could ebb as the government adopts policies aimed at protecting vested interests;


National assets and state documents could be 'misplaced'; and


There could be moves to engineer political instability.

Some speculate that if Mr Bambang and another former general, Wiranto, face off against each other, it could trigger mass student demonstrations.

Others say there could be violence on the scale of the May 1998 riots that would allow the palace to reassert control or pave the way for hawkish elements in the Indonesian military to step in.

But palace loyalists brush aside such talk as 'rubbish' spread by Ms Megawati's rivals to discredit her.

A senior PDI-P legislator said: 'Losing power will be a personal blow for Ibu Mega but she will not take revenge by burning down the country. That is not her style.'

But he conceded that there could be 'uncontrollable elements' in the government and the party who could take matters into their own hands.

If Ms Megawati is beaten, the blame game could start within the PDI-P, leading to attempts by rival factions to oust her from the chairmanship.

The source said: 'There could be skirmishes around the country pitting those supporting her against those plotting to throw her out. They could also turn on rival supporters but it will be localised violence, not on a mass scale.'

It has happened before.

In 1999, PDI-P supporters went on the rampage in parts of Indonesia when Ms Megawati failed to clinch the presidency.

At the tactical level, however, the focus of the Megawati administration in the last throes of its power would be to build crucial alliances that could serve a number of aims in its evacuation plans.

In the event of a failure to make it to the run-off, Mr Marzuki believes Ms Megawati and the PDI-P would push all the state resources towards backing one of the contenders.

At the core, in any scenario, are concerns that a new government would mount a campaign to target ministers and senior officials of the past regime for corruption.

Rumours are making the rounds in the capital that vast amounts of money are being transferred to Switzerland and the Cayman Islands.

Besides a scramble for political coalitions, government-linked businesses will be gingerly realigning themselves with emerging economic forces. There could be an 11th-hour surge to get government concessions such as bank credit and lucrative tenders or contracts.

How could a new president counter, at its most extreme, a 'scorched earth' policy implemented by those on their way out?

A transition blueprint that Dr Joyo helped to draw up for Mr Bambang, if he is elected, offers some insights.

If the retired general clinches the presidency in Round One, he will be able to initiate negotiations with the palace, the Attorney-General's Office, the Supreme Court and Bank Indonesia to ensure a smooth power transfer.

Running parallel with this will be moves to build a limited coalition with broad support from both political parties and NGOs. This will help to secure a guarantee from the government that it will stay the course.

Dr Joyo is also contemplating a plan to create an interim 'shadow government' in which key members of the Bambang team will be deployed across ministries and state bodies during the period.

The critical issue here is whether the Megawati camp will give in so easily. If it is knocked out in the first round, it has little choice but to deal with the incoming administration. But it is likely to be a bruising encounter.

To register their political clout, Ms Megawati and the PDI-P would most likely gravitate towards Golkar - if it loses the race - to form a grand coalition in Parliament.

The Van Zorge report, a bi-weekly analysis on Indonesian politics, notes that if the race enters a second phase and the results are close, there could be another worst-case scenario in which the election process is burdened by disputes.

If the constitutional courts cannot resolve these problems in the very short time available, there may not be an elected president by Oct 20. The Indonesian Constitution makes no provision for this.

There is an article that allows for power to be handed to a triumvirate comprising the ministers of defence, interior and foreign affairs but the triumvirate would lose legitimacy once the government's official mandate ends.

It would leave an electorate already suffering from political fatigue with the prospect of greater uncertainty.


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Copyright @ 2004 Singapore Press Holdings. All rights reserved.