Tuesday 10 May 2005

US and Malaysia extend defence pact by 10 years

Accord allows for logistical support and supplies to their armed forces

:: As published in The Straits Times 10 May 2005 ::
KUALA LUMPUR - MALAYSIA and the United States yesterday extended a defence agreement by 10 years, allowing both nations to provide logistical support, supplies and services to each other's armed forces, officials said.

The signing of the agreement was witnessed by US Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, who arrived here late on Sunday after a trip to Indonesia as part of his South-east Asian tour.

He is the highest-ranking US government official to visit Malaysia since 2002.

The Access and Cross-Servicing Agreement is expected to benefit mostly the US military, which has a large presence in the region and often needs local support to function properly.

Malaysian officials said the 10-year agreement expired in 2004, and yesterday's signing renewed it until 2015.

A US Embassy statement said the agreement allows for refuelling of US military planes and also support coordination of bilateral and multilateral emergency relief operations.

This was demonstrated by the 'outstanding cooperation between US, Malaysian and other armed forces' in response to the Dec 26 earthquake and tsunami disaster when they worked together to deliver assistance, the statement said.

'Such an operation requires huge amount of logistical support, including fuel, food services, maintenance and repair and many other services,' it said.

Under the agreement, either nation may request support from the other, which will be provided on a voluntary basis with each party making 'its best efforts, consistent with national policies and priorities'.

The agreement was signed by Mr Subhan bin Jasmon, secretary-general of Malaysia's Ministry of Defence, and US Ambassador Christopher LaFleur.

Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak, who is also the defence minister, witnessed the signing.

Mr Subhan said the agreement 'binds both nations in providing all the logistical support whenever we need for purposes such as joint exercises, training and relief operations'.

As it renewed the pact, the US also offered to help ensure security in the pirate-plagued Malacca Strait, Datuk Seri Najib said.

But there was no proposal for joint patrols, he added.

'Zoellick was very pleased with the level of cooperation given by Malaysia in the field of tackling terrorism, especially in our Counter-terrorism Centre, our domestic efforts to eliminate terrorism and our role in the region to reduce terrorism and conflicts.' -- ASSOCIATED PRESS, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

Sunday 8 May 2005

As the iPod Stays Hot, It Risks Losing Its Cool

:: THE NEW YORK TIMES 8 May 2005 | By KEN BELSON ::
SO President George W. Bush listens to an iPod, it was learned recently. How uncool is that?

You'd think any marketer would love a little product placement with the consumer in chief. But the iPod - and Apple products generally - have reached near-cult status partly because they cultivate an image as the electronic toys of the anti-establishment set.

If someone as mainstream as President Bush has caught on to something allegedly so hip, what can Apple do to keep iPod chic and cutting edge?

Many successful gadget makers have wrestled with this issue and few have conquered it. Nokia's handsets, treasured for their sleekness just a few years ago, are now ridiculed as clunky blocks. Palm organizers, once signature accouterments in Silicon Valley and on Wall Street, barely register a yawn when they are pulled out at dinner parties.

Even TiVo, which is now synonymous with the digital video recorder, has lost its cachet as cable and satellite operators introduce their own versions.

The stakes, though, may be higher for Apple, a company that for two decades has cultivated the aura of techno-chic. Apple promotes the iPod, for instance, with a counterculture package of freewheeling dancers, psychedelic coloring and raucous music. The company's devotees are almost as fanatical as the Deadheads who followed the Grateful Dead on tour.

With simple styling and an easy-to-use format, it is little surprise that even the president has stumbled upon the iPod. Apple has a daunting 75 percent of the digital music player market, dominating companies like Dell and Samsung.

But these and other rivals are bound to catch up, which means Apple must continue to innovate to stay cool. "It's no longer, 'Will the iPod stay fashionable?' but 'Can Apple keep the tempo up?' " said Paul Saffo, a strategist at the Institute for the Future in Palo Alto, Calif.

Apple isn't standing still. It has extended its iPod line to include iPod Minis - smaller, cheaper versions of the iPod with less memory - and the iPod Shuffle, a stripped-down player that Apple promotes for its ability to play songs randomly.

Apple has also encouraged the development of accessories, including a flashlight that snaps on to iPods. And despite resisting at first, Apple has introduced the iPhoto, which lets users download digital photos from their computers.

It has also latched onto musicians to share some of their luster. Apple makes an iPod U2 Special Edition complete with the autographs of each of the band's members. Its online iTunes store is also a repository of exclusive songs and hip tastes.

"When I look at that store, it's clear Apple has a music director who manages the store, like a radio station manager," said Joe Wilcox, who tracks the industry for Jupiter Research. "It's a subtle thing, but it feeds into the whole cool factor."

Cool, though, is temporal, particularly in an industry as ever-changing as consumer electronics. "There could be something out there that is on the verge of coming out that has a new delivery system that could knock it out quickly," said Irma Zandl, the head of the Zandl Group, a research firm based in New York that tracks youth trends.

One school of iPod watchers says Apple should connect its mobile machines to the Internet, much like the Blackberry and cellphone. This would let people download songs on the run.

Cellphone companies are thinking the same thing; several have released handsets with digital music players inside. Motorola plans to release handsets that can download songs from the iTunes Web site.

Others say Apple has to integrate the iPod into everyday items like cars and exercise treadmills. The company now works with carmakers to make room on their dashboards for the players.

Still others say Apple needs to do for DVD's what it did for CD's - let people download movies quickly and cheaply and move them to their players with little fuss.

Apple is not alone in trying to find a new paradigm. Sony has spent a quarter of a century massaging the Walkman brand to keep its flame burning. Sony has released waterproof players, ever-thinner designs and even a line specially made for children. Walkman morphed from a cassette player into a CD player in 1984, and a mini-disc player in 1992.

Yet despite its ubiquity, the Walkman has limped recently as an MP3 player because Sony's format is harder to use than Apple's.

Which all shows that even the most recognizable and stylish brands lose their shine.

Geoffrey Moore, author of "Crossing the Chasm," an exploration of the life cycle of electronics, notes: "Anything truly edgy necessarily has its own mortality, like Baudelaire or Jimi Hendrix."

Teropong Riong | Tanda tanya pelawaan Kuan Yew edar BH, UM di Singapura

:: BERITA MINGGU 8 Mei 2005 | Oleh Munsyi munsyi@bharian.com.my ::
MENTERI Mentor Singapura, Lee Kuan Yew, minggu lalu dengan wajah ceria mengesyorkan agar akhbar negaranya dibenar dijual di Malaysia dan akhbar-akhbar dari negara kita dijual pula di republik itu. Ketika ditemuramah akhbar Business Times di republik itu, beliau tidak pula memberitahu bila ini boleh dimulakan. Pengedaran itu samalah juga dengan kebenaran diberikan kepada akhbar Indonesia dan Britain serta New York dibenarkan dijual di sana.

Akhbar perdana kita tentunya Berita Harian, Utusan Malaysia dan New Straits Times.

MUNSYI: Agaknya dalam bentuk kandungannya hari ini, BH, UM dan NST tentulah boleh dibenarkan dijual di Singapura iaitu dengan berita mengenai Singapura hampir tidak ada langsung atau jika ada pun hanya beberapa perenggan. Itupun beritanya begitu hambar dan tanpa ulasan dikategorikan Kuan Yew sebagai 'melulu' dan cuba campur tangan dalam politik domestiknya.

Berbanding kandungan Utusan Melayu dan Utusan Malaysia dulu iaitu selepas waktu perpisahan dan hubungan penuh kesangsian dengan berita diberi ulasan yang dianggap Kuan Yew menyinggung beliau dan kerajaannya, kandungan UM begitu juga BH dan NST hari ini seperti tidak meminati sebarang berita dari republik itu. Atau sememangnya tidak ada berita yang menarik atau berita tempatan menarik untuk diceduk dan dimasukkan ke dalam akhbar di sini.

Akhbar kita pula jika menyiarkan pun berita dari Singapura hanya berupa petikan daripada Associated Press dan Reuters dan sekali-sekala Bernama. Kuan Yew dan Singapura mempunyai peraturan dan syarat ketat mengenai penulisan berita.

Akhbar republik itu hanya boleh melaporkan fakta saja tanpa cuba membuat sebarang ulasan atau andaian terutama mengenai berita membabitkan politik, PAP atau isu dalaman.

Tetapi jika ia berita mengenai isu luar negara atau pun perbalahan di antara Indonesia dengan Malaysia, apa saja boleh dibuat. Seolah-olah bagi ST (dan Kuan Yew mungkin) biarlah dua negara jiran Melayu ini bertelagah kerana yang menang adalah Singapura!

Bagaimana pula jika dengan kebenaran tu, akhbar perdana Malaysia menempatkan koresponden mereka di Singapura sama seperti koresponden ST di Kuala Lumpur yang bukan saja melapor malah mengulas, membuat andaian dan memberi gambaran daripada perspektif PAP mengenai apa saja berlaku di Malaysia.

Mungkin jika kandungan akhbar Malaysia mengandungi laporan dianggap Kuan Yew berat sebelah, kesediaannya membuat pelawaan itu ditarik balik tetapi jika semuanya 'as it is now' BH, UM dan NST sedia diterimanya.

Mengikut laporan Reporters Without Borders 2004, Singapura berada di tangga 144 daripada 166 dalam soal cengkaman terhadap kebebasan akhbar, memang teruk tapi ini tidak dipedulikan Kuan Yew kerana baginya apa yang penting adalah akhbar atau sebaran am turut memainkan peranan dalam aspek pembangunan negara. Akhbar dan majalah antarabangsa yang celupar boleh disekat edarannya atau dilarang dijual di Singapura sedang sejak 1960-an lagi akhbar Singapura sendiri dianggap sebagai 'docile' (kecut).

DATUK NIK AZIZ NIK MAT DALAM BERITA MINGGU | Kami di Kelantan berterima kasih kepada Pusat

:: BERITA MINGGU 8 Mei 2005 ::
TAHUN ini genap 15 tahun Mursyidul Am Pas, Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, 75 sebagai Menteri Besar Kelantan selepas memegang jawatan itu sejak 1990.

Baru-baru ini, beliau membuat kejutan apabila secara terbuka menyatakan pencalonan dan sokongannya mahu seorang wakil Dewan Muslimat parti itu dipilih sebagai Naib Presiden pada pemilihan sempena muktamar awal bulan depan. Meskipun ada yang tidak berpuas hati, beliau mempunyai hujah tersendiri.

Ketua Biro Berita Harian Kelantan, ISMAIL MAT dan wartawan, MONA AHMAD, serta jurugambar, Syamsi Suhaimi, menemui Nik Aziz di pejabatnya, Rabu lalu. Dalam temubual selama sejam selepas beliau selesai menikmati nasi bungkus berlauk ikan keli secara sendirian di pejabatnya itu, Nik Abdul Aziz mengulas pelbagai perkara, daripada kekalahan Pas pada Pilihanraya Umum 2004 hinggalah minatnya kepada gusti serta isu kahwin dua di kalangan pemimpin Pas.

15 tahun sebagai Menteri Besar

ADA orang berbangga dengan Pas Kelantan kerana kami yang mula-mula memindahkan duit kerajaan daripada bank konvensional kepada Bank Islam. Kelantan juga pertama memberi cuti dua hari seminggu kepada penjawat awam dan membenarkan kakitangan wanita yang bersalin cuti daripada 40 kepada 60 hari serta menyediakan tabung pinjaman tanpa faedah kepada kakitangan untuk membeli kenderaan.

Tidak mengapa Pas Kelantan masih dikaitkan dengan kemiskinan. Soalnya, negeri lain tiada isu kemiskinankah? Biarlah orang lain kata anak orang mati, anak aku mati. Kemiskinan bukan di Kelantan saja.

Lihatlah pembinaan rumah baru bertaburan di seluruh Kelantan sekarang. Bagaimana penduduk mampu membina banyak rumah kalau tiada duit? Begitu juga pendaftaran kenderaan, terus meningkat. Telefon bimbit, anak-anak kecil pun kini sudah menggunakan kemudahan itu, bagaimana nak guna semua kemudahan itu kalau rakyat negeri ini tidak berduit.

Nak kata miskin, katalah! Boleh jadi kerajaan miskin tetapi rakyatnya mempunyai wang. Sebelah malam kami tutup kelab malam, tetapi gerai makan dan pasar malam menjadikan Kota Bharu hidup pada waktu malam.

Kemiskinan tidak menjadi masalah di Kelantan, peluang pekerjaan semakin terbuka di negeri ini, pembinaan rumah-rumah baru turut memerlukan pekerja, boleh semak peningkatan jualan bagi simen, besi keluli dan pasir, semuanya ada ukuran. Kemakmuran daripada kekayaan itu.

Kami di Kelantan berterima kasih kepada kerajaan pusat yang salurkan pembangunan menerusi Jabatan Pembangunan Persekutuan. Saya sendiri menemui bekas Menteri Kewangan, Tun Daim Zainuddin, untuk meminta pinjaman RM600 juta. Alhamdulillah! saya terima kasih. Begitu juga banyak lagi projek hospital, klinik, sekolah dan pembinaan jalan raya dari Kota Bharu ke Kuala Krai membabitkan peruntukan puluhan juta ringgit.

Saya berterima kasih kerana itu bukan rasuah tetapi kewajipan kerajaan pusat menjaga sebuah gugusan.

Masalah sosial di Kelantan

MASALAH dadah di negeri ini, lebih kepada politik semata-mata untuk memburukkan Pas. Ketika ini Kelantan adalah negeri kelapan dalam masalah dadah.

Dalam usaha Pas Kelantan mewajibkan pegawai menutup aurat dan meminta secara moral masyarakat supaya menutup aurat, bagi mengurangkan masalah ghairah dan rogol, tetap berlaku juga masalah sosial, apa lagi negeri yang tidak melaksanakan tutup aurat, tentu lebih teruk lagi.

Saya tidak boleh sekat kalau setiap hari akhbar menyiarkan gambar wanita tidak senonoh dan tidak menutup aurat. Televisyen dengan situasi langit terbuka kini lebih teruk lagi.

Dengan keupayaan yang ada di Kelantan, kami cuba serapkan semangat dosa pahala kepada masyarakat kerana tutup aurat bukan kehendak Pas tetapi ketetapan Allah, syurga neraka bukan kerja Pas tetapi kuasa Allah, selagi manusia tidak mampu membina langit dan bumi sendiri, kenalah duduk dalam dunia Allah ini dan patuhi undang-undangnya.

Belum fikir letak jawatan

LETAK jawatan sebagai Menteri Besar? Tidak. Selagi sihat sehingga pilihan raya umum akan datang saya akan terus pegang jawatan Menteri Besar. Nak kata apa katalah. Nak sebar khabar angin itu sebarlah! mereka yang menanggung dosa.

Dua minggu lalu, saya berjumpa doktor di Institut Jantung Negara (IJN) yang menyatakan jantung saya kini macam ahli sukan, degupannya begitu hebat, cuma gastrik saja yang masih ada.

Saya ini minat gusti, cuma kini saya nak tengok ulangan televisyen pun tak boleh tengok, walaupun saya tahu siapa menang siapa kalah, sebab debar jantung kuat sangat. Itu dulu. Sekarang lagi tidak boleh selepas pembedahan untuk menonton gusti.

Mengenai kahwin dua, itu isu terlalu peribadi. Kahwin dua atau tiga tiada dalam kepala saya. Yang saya harapkan hanyalah kerja, kalau mengganggu kerja saya, masalah. Kalau kahwin dua, ada giliran, itu dan ini sedangkan saya tiada masa untuk itu. Macam mana nak kahwin dua.

Kahwin dua mengundang masalah, lebih-lebih lagi isteri saya begitu memuaskan saya, makan minum dan tidur saya dijaganya dengan baik, buat apa saya fikirkan kepada orang lain.

Ada beberapa surat cinta dihantar kepada saya oleh wanita. Orang nak pinang pun ada, apa boleh buat, terima kasih tetapi saya tolak. Saya tengok orang kahwin dua ini bermasalah.

Pemimpin Pas yang kahwin lebih dia punya pasal selagi caranya halal. Saya tidak kata apa atau tegur, nak kahwin kahwinlah tetapi jaga peraturan yang dibuat oleh Allah, jangan sekadar nak melepaskan nafsu.

Muslimat sebagai Naib Presiden

DALAM Islam yang menjaga dunia ini sama. Wanita bertanggungjawab dalam bidang tertentu, begitu juga lelaki. Dosa pahala bukan kena pada lelaki saja, perempuan pun sama. Ahli syurga bukan lelaki saja, tetapi perempuan juga. Tetapi oleh kerana keadaan semasa, golongan perempuan terpinggir, maka Pas menaikkan semangat dan kerjasama dengan wanita dalam parti.

Saya sudah lama melantik senator di kalangan wanita untuk mewakili Kelantan (Senator Siti Zailah Mohd Yusoff dan Senator Wan Ubaidah Omar). Saya tidak lantik lelaki tapi saya lantik perempuan.

Itu langkah pertama saya bagi membolehkan muslimat atau wanita menceburi politik tanpa bertanding kerana jawatan itu dilantik. Kemudian kita beri peluang bertanding pada pilihan raya tahun lepas, kita calon tiga orang tapi satu menang, manakala satu lagi menolak, seorang lagi kalah di Parlimen Pasir Puteh (Kalthom Othman).

Bagi membolehkan semangat wanita itu bergerak dengan lebih cergas, saya minta muslimat dicalonkan sebagai Naib Presiden. Kerana itu, saya sendiri sebut nama Dr Siti Mariah Mahmud, mudah-mudahan orang akan perasan.

Saya minta maaf jika ada calon lain yang kecil hati tetapi saya sudah fikir acapkali kalau saya sendiri tidak sebut namanya, boleh jadi muslimat teraba-raba, maka saya beranikan diri sebut nama.

Perkara ini benda baru bagi muslimat, sudahlah muslimat ini bersifat malu-malu, nak ke hadapan semakin malu, maka saya tolong dukung muslimat, memberanikan diri mereka mencalonkan nama. Nama yang saya calonkan itu sudah lama duduk sebagai ahli Mesyuarat Agung Pusat. Orang ini dah lama jadi ahli dalam mesyuarat Pas Pusat, tapi barangkali orang tidak kenal.

Bukan saya kempen, tapi nak tunjukkan nama yang mereka tercari-cari kerana saya sudah lama berkawan dengan dia (Dr Siti Mariah) dalam mesyuarat jawatankuasa pusat, tetapi beliau tidak ditonjolkan dalam masyarakat.

Saya tidak kecil hati kalau orang tidak mahu menyokong dia pun. Jadi terpulanglah kepada pengundi. Itu masalah peribadi, saya tidak boleh kempen.

Kriteria untuk memilih pemimpin mesti warak, baik berlatar belakangkan akademik atau agama, orangnya mesti warak. Warak kita boleh pantau dari segi tutur kata mereka, tindak tanduk dan pencampuran. Ini kita boleh ukur.

Profesional pun tidak menjadi masalah kalau dia tiada berlatar belakangkan pendidikan agama khasnya pejuang Islam, tetapi sudah lama bercampur dengan orang yang beragama dan maka terbawa-bawa dengan Islam.

Perbezaan dengan Hadi Awang

SAYA suka katakan ada sedikit kelainan gaya kepemimpinan dengan Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang. Inilah ertinya ada demokrasi dalam Pas, mana ada demokrasi tanpa kelainan. Kelainan adalah sesuatu yang bagus.

Saya serahkan kepada perwakilan ketika mengundi dalam muktamar kelak walaupun ada kelainan dalam pencalonan daripada Kelantan dan Marang. Saya tidak suka kempen.

Saya dapati tiada masalah golongan muda dan profesional berada dalam kepemimpinan saya. Dalam exco saya ada ustaz, pensyarah undang-undang, doktor dan doktor pakar. Dalam parti juga ia terbuka, begitu juga dalam kerajaan. Dalam parti ada pemilihan, dalam kerajaan siapa yang layak dilantik.

Husam Musa, kalau saya tidak calon pun sebagai Naib Presiden, nama dia terlalu banyak disampaikan kepada saya menerusi telefon dan surat. Husam boleh dikira budak cerdik dan ulat buku. Saya seronok dengan Husam kerana hobi kami serupa, sama-sama suka membaca. Dia pula manusia yang suka bekerja, tidak membuang masa dengan borak-borak. Saya sangat suka dengan orang macam ini. Nama beliau pun selalu jadi sebutan dalam akhbar, jadi kalau saya sebut Husam untuk pencalonan adalah perkara biasa saja.

Pas selepas kalah pada 2004

SAMA ada gagal atau berjaya, satu kejayaan besar Pas ialah menyambung perjuangan Nabi, ketika masyarakat dunia mencemuhkan kerja Nabi, mengagungkan usaha saintis, ahli politik, teknologis, mereka melenyapkan kerja Nabi, ini adalah satu kegagalan pemikiran dunia hari ini.

Perjuangan Nabi Muhammad mencakupi keperluan hidup manusia, ekonomi, politik, budaya, sosial dan akidah, Pas berjaya menonjolkan akidah yang dibawa Nabi Muhammad sehingga lawan terpaksa menggunakan duit untuk memujuk dan memancing undi.

Ini menandakan perjuangan mereka lemah, kalau tidak diumpan dengan duit. Secara moralnya, ini kejayaan Pas, apabila musuh terpaksa menggunakan duit walaupun politik wang atau rasuah dikutuk oleh semua agama dan dikutuk oleh semua sistem demokrasi.

Kelantan mampu terus kerusi selamat Pas, selama demokrasi dijaga dengan baik, tiada rasuah, tiada ugutan, tiada kempen halangan bantuan kepada anak penyokong Pas, selama itulah Pas mempunyai masa depan yang baik.

Selagi kerja-kerja kotor ini wujud, kami nak kata macam mana pun tak tau, tetapi kewajipan kami sebagai orang Islam adalah mesti mendedahkan perjuangan Islam, kewajipan dunia akhirat.

Selama demokrasi dijaga dengan baik, selagi diberi peluang berceramah, menulis dalam akhbar, kami bercakap menerusi radio, maka selama itulah, apabila sumber ini, saluran air ini ditutup, maka tangki akan keringlah. Maka mereka gunakan sistem ini, istilah politik dipanggil tajfiful manabik iaitu mengeringkan salur air, apabila saluran air dikeringkan dalam bendang, maka ia menjadi kering.

Tapi sekarang ini, Alhamdulillah, ada internet, bolehlah bercakap melalui telefon, tapi sekadar mana sangat boleh bercakap melalui telefon kepada penyokong, banyak mana sangat boleh guna internet, tidak semua orang ada internet di rumah.

Kami bergerak dalam seribu satu masalah, tetapi kewajipan kami dunia akhirat, mesti menerangkan mengenai Islam secara syamil atau komprehensif. Kita tahu Nabi Muhammad dikepung lebih teruk daripada kami, Nabi Isa sampai dibawa naik ke langit.

Pas akan terus bekerjasama dengan sesiapa yang mahu bekerjasama dengan kami. Kami terima, DAP, Gerakan atau MCA sendiri kami sedia terima. DAP menerima perjuangan Pas tetapi mereka mengaku pada malam mesyuarat dengan anggota tertinggi parti itu di Perak, mereka tidak mampu melawan kempen MCA. Saya kata, Pas boleh lawan tetapi DAP akui tidak padan kerana MCA berkempen Pas ini taliban, maka dengan sendirinya DAP akan menjadi penyokong taliban.

Agama Islam terlalu mudah kerana Nabi Muhammad, orang pertama Islam di muka bumi. Musyrikin Makkah, Aus dan Khazraj adalah ibarat masyarakat Cina ketika belum Islam. Musyrikin sanggup meninggalkan akidah dan budaya lama apabila menerima Islam, serupa saja dengan orang Cina sekarang.

Cina Kelantan sudah ada Persatuan Penyokong Pas. Kami minta mereka sokong dasar Pas, soal dia nak terima Islam atau tukar agama itu dia punya pasal kerana ajaran Islam tidak memaksa orang menerima Islam. Mana boleh paksa orang terima ajaran Islam.

Alhamdulillah, jika ada masalah yang tidak disenangi, mereka tanya dan saya memberikan jawapan berdasarkan logik dan mereka terima. Katakan arak dan judi, sering dikaitkan dengan budaya orang Cina, tetapi orang Cina menafikannya.

Judi adalah kerja mencari duit yang tidak logik kerana mencari duit secara berniaga maka boleh atur kertas kerja, kempen pelanggan, boleh bersihkan barang di kedai dan boleh guna senyum simpul untuk tarik pelanggan. Judi nak kempen macam mana, kita taruh sikit duit dalam tabung, beli toto atau macam-macam jenis judi zaman sekarang ini, yang bodoh pun kadang-kadang menang judi dan yang ada PHD banyak juga kalah judi. Judi ialah cara yang tidak beretika dan semuanya secara kebetulan. Mana boleh hidup dengan kebetulan saja.

Menilai kebebasan akhbar di seluruh dunia

:: MINGGUAN MALAYSIA 8 Mei 2005 | Oleh MAZLAN NORDIN ::
DUA hari selepas Hari Pekerja, maka giliran para wartawan pula menyambut Hari Kebebasan Akhbar Sedunia.

Bagi Aidcom (Institut Pembangunan Komunikasi Asia) ia berupa lanjutan pelbagai usaha untuk meningkatkan kesedaran betapa perlunya kebebasan berbicara demi mewujudkan masyarakat adil di sesebuah negara. Bahawa ia disokong oleh Institut Akhbar Malaysia dan Kelab Wartawan Kebangsaan mencerminkan matlamat yang sama.

Hampir 20 tahun lampau sesuatu yang disebut Perisytiharan Windhoek memilih 3 Mei sebagai tarikh menyambut hak kebebasan berbicara dan menghayati hakikat bahawa media yang bebas dan berpelbagaian adalah penting untuk memupuk prinsip demokrasi.

Pihak media memainkan peranan penting untuk menegakkan keadilan sosial dan ketelusan serta pemerintahan undang-undang. Tanpa media yang saksama maka pemerintahan yang baik terus menjadi impian.

Bagi masyarakat majmuk di Malaysia antara ukuran kebebasan ialah banyaknya akhbar dan majalah pelbagai bahasa, stesen televisyen kerajaan dan swasta, radio serta Internet.

Dewasa ini bilangan akhbar bahasa Cina mengatasi jumlah akhbar bahasa Melayu, Inggeris dan Tamil. Keadaan yang seumpama tidak berlaku di negara-negara lain, termasuk negara jiran.

Pun tiada halangan bagi akhbar-akhbar dan majalah-majalah asing diedarkan di Malaysia.

Seperti diketahui dalam pada itu ialah tiadanya lagi majalah berita mingguan Asiaweek dan Far Eastern Economic Review milik Amerika terbitan di Hong Kong yang kadangkala di masa dulu mengkritik itu, ini di Malaysia.

Pertanyaan: Apakah majalah berita mingguan kehilangan para pembaca kerana begitu banyak majalah lain, termasuk hiburan dan sistem siaran televisyen yang begitu pantas menghidangkan berita?

Dan yang disiarkan bukan hanya berita breaking news tetapi juga sorotannya atau follow-up hingga mendahului akhbar yang bakal terbit esoknya!

Menarik perhatian dalam konteks sokongan kepada parti-parti politik ialah perkembangan di Britain seperti sebelum hari mengundi pilihan raya Parlimen beberapa hari lalu.

Akhbar-akhbar News Of The World, Sun, Sunday Mirror, The People, Observer menyatakan sokongan kepada Parti Buruh pimpinan Tony Blair.

Sebaliknya akhbar-akhbar Sunday Times dan Sunday Express menyatakan sokongan kepada Parti Konservatif.

Lincah sekali nampaknya Rupert Murdoch yang memiliki akhbar News Of The World, Sunday Times dan Sun. Dua menyokong Parti Buruh manakala satu lagi menyokong Parti Konservatif.

Murdoch yang asalnya warga Australia kemudian menjadi warga Amerika setelah membeli dan memiliki beberapa akhbar dan stesen televisyen di negara itu. Beliau satu-satunya tuan punya akhbar di tiga negara - Australia, Amerika dan Britain.

Betapa dengan tuan punya akhbar-akhbar di Malaysia? Yang jelas ialah tiada warga asing.

Agak menakjubkan ialah nama Malaysia tidak disebut dalam senarai kebebasan akhbar di serata dunia (world press freedom ranking) yang disusun oleh sebuah pertubuhan bernama Wartawan Tanpa Sempadan (Reporters Without Borders) yang berpangkalan di Paris.

Negara nombor satu yang akhbar-akhbarnya dianggap paling bebas ialah Denmark. Kedudukan beberapa negara lain seperti berikut:

Amerika 23, Britain 30, Jepun 43, Timor-Leste 58, Amerika di Iraq 108, Filipina 111, Indonesia 117, Singapura 147, China 162, Myanmar 165, Korea Utara 167 yang akhir sekali.

Nah, nama Malaysia tidak dicatatkan dalam senarai itu. Lalu timbul pertanyaan betapa segala negara diukur kebebasan akhbar masing-masing? Bagaimana Filipina yang medianya dianggap paling bebas di benua Asia jatuh nombor 111, jauh di bawah Timor-Leste?

Rupa-rupanya kedudukan pelbagai negara dalam senarai itu adalah berdasarkan pelbagai jawapan yang diterima dari ``punca-punca bebas.'' Bagaimana Timor-Leste di atas pada nombor 58, jauh meninggalkan Indonesia?

Kita pelik bin takjub dan menunggu 3 Mei 2006 pula. Ada kalanya gamat cerita sang wartawan.

Jutawan khianati agenda Melayu

:: MINGGUAN MALAYSIA 8 Mei 2005 ::
GERIK 7 Mei - Pergerakan Pemuda UMNO menyifatkan jutawan yang sengaja tidak membayar balik pinjaman pendidikan sebagai `pengkhianat agenda Melayu' kerana menghalang usaha kerajaan membantu mereka yang tidak berkemampuan melanjutkan pelajaran.

Naib Ketuanya, Khairy Jamaluddin juga menyifatkan jutawan tersebut sebagai tidak bertanggungjawab kerana mereka kini telah berjaya dan sepatutnya tampil membantu pihak yang memerlukan bantuan.

Menurutnya, kegagalan membayar balik pinjaman meskipun berkemampuan, menjadikan usaha kerajaan semakin sukar terutama dalam keadaan dana kerajaan yang terhad untuk menyalurkan biasiswa atau pinjaman kepada sasaran.

``Mungkin mereka ada alasan munasabah (tidak membayar) tetapi mengambil contoh di Selangor, mereka ini tidak ada sikap tanggungjawab dan boleh dikatakan sikap yang tidak membantu agenda Melayu.

``Kalau sengaja tidak membayar balik itu boleh dikatakan mengkhianati agenda Melayu,'' katanya kepada pemberita selepas menutup mesyuarat perwakilan Pergerakan Pemuda, Wanita dan Puteri UMNO Bahagian Gerik, di sini hari ini.

Turut hadir ialah Menteri Besar, Datuk Mohd. Tajol Rosli Ghazali.

Khairy mengulas laporan akhbar hari ini mengenai jutawan dan doktor antara 4,000 orang yang liat dan malas menjelaskan hutang Pinjaman Pelajaran Negeri Selangor berjumlah RM15 juta.

Turut melarikan diri ialah mereka yang bergelar Datuk, pegawai kanan kerajaan, usahawan dan kontraktor sehingga ada di antara tunggakan mencecah RM100,000 seorang.

Khairy yang melahirkan rasa kesal dengan senario itu berkata, sepatutnya dalam perjuangan memartabatkan bangsa, mereka yang berjaya tidak mengambil peluang di atas usaha kerajaan untuk membantu golongan yang memerlukan bantuan.

Menurutnya, kerajaan juga perlu mengkaji sistem pemberian pinjaman dan biasiswa agar dapat disalurkan kepada golongan yang benar-benar layak supaya matlamat membantu mereka yang tidak berkemampuan mencapai objektif.

``Perjuangan agenda Melayu harus diterjemahkan melalui program yang menepati sasaran, kita tidak mahu ada agenda yang `kebocoran' sehingga bantuan tidak sampai dan ada tol (halangan) di pelbagai tempat,'' ujar beliau.

Saturday 7 May 2005

Persaingan jawatan Timbalan Presiden Pas terbuka

:: Utusan Malaysia 7 Mei 2005 | ZULKIFLEE BAKAR ::
Perebutan jawatan Timbalan Presiden Pas yang akan dilakukan pada 1 Jun ini memasuki babak menarik apabila calon popular, Datuk Dr. Haron Din membayangkan beliau tidak akan bertanding jawatan berkenaan biarpun setakat ini sudah mendapat pencalonan tertinggi dari bahagian-bahagian parti itu.

Selain faktor kesihatan yang semakin menggugat pergerakannya, Dr. Haron juga sememangnya dikenali sebagai seorang yang tidak suka berebut jawatan dalam parti.

Justeru beliau mungkin membuat keputusan untuk menarik diri dan sekali gus menghampakan ahli-ahli Pas yang kini semakin ramai memberi isyarat mahu menyingkirkan penyandang jawatan sekarang, Hassan Shukri.

Walaupun keputusan Dr. Haron itu akan sekali lagi mengecewakan penyokong-penyokong Pas setelah beliau pernah berbuat demikian pada muktamar tiga tahun lalu, namun mereka seharusnya bersyukur kerana mempunyai pemimpin seperti beliau.

Ini kerana Dr. Haron bukanlah menarik diri kerana takut tewas dalam pertarungan tetapi beliau berbuat demikian atas sebab-sebab kesihatan dan merasakan tidak mampu melaksanakan tanggungjawab yang bakal dipikul.

Kalaupun Dr. Haron meneruskan juga perjuangan bagi menduduki jawatan itu atas desakan ahli-ahli Pas tetapi ia pasti akan tersekat di tengah jalan.

Ia disebabkan Dr. Haron tidak akan bertarung bagi merebut jawatan dan ini telah beliau buktikan dalam pemilihan lalu apabila menarik diri tidak sampai dua jam sebelum pengundian hendak dijalankan setelah segala usaha kompromi untuk mengelakkan perebutan jawatan itu gagal dilakukan.

Keputusan Dr. Haron untuk tidak bertanding dalam pemilihan kali ini, sudah tentulah mengejutkan ahli-ahli Pas yang mencalonkannya dan bagi bahagian yang belum mesyuarat pula mereka perlu memikirkan calon dalam keadaan masa yang semakin suntuk memandangkan semua senarai pencalonan perlu dihantar ke Markas Pas Pusat selewat-lewatnya 15 Mei ini.

Jika berdasarkan pada senarai pencalonan yang diterima setakat ini, perwakilan Pas mempunyai pilihan untuk memilih sama ada Hassan, ahli Parlimen Pengkalan Chepa, Datuk Abdul Halim Abdul Rahman atau Nasharuddin Mat Isa.

Bagaimanapun tidak mustahil juga jika bahagian-bahagian berkenaan melakukan kejutan dengan memilih calon-calon lain bagi memenuhi kriteria ulama sebaris dengan Dr. Haron, tetapi persoalannya siapa?

``Inilah masalahnya sebab sejak awal-awal lagi kita tidak melakukan persediaan kemungkinan Dr. Haron menarik diri, oleh itu tiada calon pengganti disediakan.

``Justeru mahu tidak mahu, ahli-ahli Pas perlu menumpukan perhatian untuk memutuskan antara tiga calon yang masih tinggal siapakah yang paling layak,'' kata seorang pemimpin Pas Kelantan ketika dihubungi.

Namun begitu pemimpin tersebut tidak menolak kemungkinan akan wujud calon mengejut yang mungkin mampu menggantikan Dr. Haron dan sekali gus merealisasikan impian sebahagian besar ahli Pas yang mahu Hassan Shukri melangkah keluar dari saf kepimpinan utama Pas.

Ada juga pemimpin Pas berpandangan bahawa Hassan masih berpeluang jika tiada calon sesuai dikemukakan dan saingan terdekat beliau ialah Abdul Halim yang dilihat ulama liberal dan sentiasa bersikap terbuka.

Abdul Halim dilihat ulama yang mampu ke kiri dan kanan, ertinya diterima oleh banyak pihak dalam Pas sama ada dari golongan profesional mahupun ulama.

Oleh itu jika sindrom ingin menolak Hassan terus berlaku, Abdul Halim berpeluang cerah apatah lagi jika beliau mampu menguasai golongan muda dalam Pas.

Tetapi dalam masa yang sama, peluang Nasharuddin juga tidak boleh dipinggirkan jika melihat sokongan yang diberikan kepadanya bagi merebut jawatan naib presiden.

Bagaimanapun memetik kata-kata seorang lagi pemimpin Pas Kelantan, dalam parti itu bukan sahaja soal kebolehan diambil kira, usia juga turut menjadi penentu.

``Saya tidak fikir Nasharuddin akan dipilih menduduki jawatan timbalan presiden, ini kerana kalau ahli Pas menolak Hassan dan tiada pencalonan baru, sudah pasti mereka akan memberi undi kepada Abdul Halim,'' kata pemimpin berkenaan.

Walaupun Abdul Halim bukanlah calon paling diminati tetapi dalam keadaan sekarang, beliau mungkin akan dipilih biarpun untuk sementara waktu sehingga calon yang benar-benar sesuai ditemui dalam pemilihan tiga tahun lagi.

Jika itu berlaku, Kelantan diramalkan akan menguasai dua jawatan penting dalam parti berkenaan iaitu timbalan presiden dan naib presiden. Ini disebabkan seorang lagi calon dari negeri itu, Husam Musa memperoleh pencalonan tertinggi setakat ini.

Biarpun jumlah pencalonan tidak boleh menggambarkan undi yang bakal diperoleh tetapi Husam dilihat berpeluang cerah untuk menduduki jawatan berkenaan memandangkan beliau dianggap pemimpin masa depan Pas.

Sebenarnya, jika Abdul Halim dan Husam berjaya, ia bukanlah sesuatu yang mengejutkan kerana sebagai benteng terakhir, pemimpin Pas Kelantan seharusnya menduduki jawatan lebih tinggi lagi dalam parti itu.

Here's how Israel should respond to the rise of Asia

:: The Straits Times 7 My 2005 ::
Israel can benefit politically and economically from Asia's rise if it positions itself correctly, Singaporean Foreign Affairs Minister George Yeoh wrote

THREE years ago, the Israeli ambassador in Singapore sent me an article written by an Israeli scholar.

In it, the scholar saw Muslims in the Middle East viewing Israel as a Western crusader state implanted by force in their land. Like earlier crusader states, Muslims would not rest until they have recaptured it.

I found the analysis profound but depressing. It meant endless conflict until total victory or total defeat.


Perhaps it is difficult for Westerners and Muslims to see each other outside the prism of their own historical experiences. For Westerners, the eruption of Islam out of the Arabian peninsula in the 7th century began a series of threatening encounters starting with the fall of the Holy Land and leading to the loss of the Middle East, northern Africa and large parts of Europe. Important victories are celebrated like Poitiers in 732, the capture of Jerusalem in the First Crusade, the Reconquest of the Iberian Peninsula and the defeat of the Turks at the gates of Vienna in 1683.

Muslims see the same events from the opposite perspective. The fall of Constantinople in 1453 was a crushing loss for Christendom but a great triumph for Islam. Although Muslims today often put Jews and Christians in the same camp, this has not always been so. In Muslim Spain, Jews flourished and, when Jews were expelled from Catholic Spain in 1492, they were welcomed in Ottoman lands by the Sultan. Years later, a branch of the Sephardim found its way to Singapore and an Iraqi Jew became its first chief minister.

From the perspective of Asia, however,historical Islam looks quite different. Islam's encounters with Hinduism, South-east Asia and the Chinese world were very different from its encounter with the West.

Islam entered north India by successive invasions. Its greatest triumph was the establishment of the Great Mughal Empire which the British Raj took over and enlarged in the 18th and 19th centuries. Having to coexist with Hindus who made up the vast majority, Islamic society as it evolved in Mughal and British India was less intolerant of other religions than in the Middle East where Muslims were in the overwhelming majority.

In south India, where Islam arrived more by trade than by conquest, Muslim-Hindu relations have always been less troubled. While India today has the second biggest Muslim population in the world, they make up only 12 per cent of the population. It is in Pakistan and Bangladesh that the problem of Islamic extremism has become more serious in recent years.

For China, Muslims are a relatively small minority. There was only one great battle between Arab and Chinese armies in Central Asia (Talas) and that took place in the 8th century. The Chinese lost and Chinese armies never crossed the Tianshan Mountains separating China from Central Asia again.

Muslims make up 1 to 2 per cent of China's population today. They belong to different minority groups like the Uighurs and the Huis. Generally speaking, they enjoy many freedoms so long as they do not challenge the political authority of Beijing. If they do, they get put down brutally. Young Chinese grow up with a very different view of historical Islam from young Americans or young Europeans. When Sept 11 happened, many young Chinese cheered that America had its comeuppance until the central government intervened to stop it.

From the global Muslim perspective, the Chinese world is not viewed negatively at all. The Prophet himself encouraged Muslims to seek knowledge, even from China. Some members of China's Muslim minority might have a more jaundiced view of Han Chinese but that is a local perspective, not that of the global Muslim community.

In contrast to India and China, Islam was brought into South-east Asia by Muslim traders from the Middle East, India and China from the 13th century onwards. It was a civilising influence and helped create networks of trust which facilitated trade. In the same way as Buddhism was the religion of the overland silk road, Islam was for many centuries the religion of the maritime silk road between Europe and China.

Muslims make up half the population of South-east Asia today. Indonesia has the world's biggest Muslim population but many practise a more tolerant form of Islam influenced by Buddhism, Hinduism and other religions. While there have always been local conflicts between Muslims and non-Muslims, they do not have the same sharpness as the conflicts between Islam and the West. Indonesia's Constitution specifically disavows Islam as a state religion.

Rise of Asia

AS ASIA'S relative weight in the global economy grows, it is important to understand these different perspectives of Islam. Developments in China, India and South-east Asia will all exert a growing influence on the development of the global Islamic community, including developments in the Middle East.

Although Islamist terrorism is a threat to China, China does not view it with the same degree of seriousness as the United States and Europe. Up to now, it is mostly a problem of Uighur separatism. Looking ahead, however, as the inland regions become better connected to the coastal cities by road, rail, air and electronic means, the problem of Islamist terrorism in China may become worse.

With increasing urbanisation, more Chinese Muslims will live in China's urban centres. However, the Chinese government will manage this problem in a robust, practical way. Abstract Western notions of all citizens being equal before the law will matter much less in China. When China introduced a one-child policy, that policy did not apply to minorities who were free to have as many children as they wished.

Singapore is three-quarters ethnic Chinese. In Singapore, male Muslim citizens can legally marry up to four wives according to the syariah. This is not a political issue at all. For matters relating to Muslim marriage, divorce and inheritance, syariah laws apply.

In Malaysia, where Islam is the official religion, non-Muslims who comprise 40 per cent of the population enjoy freedoms which Muslims do not. For example, there is a casino which is open to anyone so long as he is not a Muslim. Such discriminatory practices, whether positive or negative, would not be allowed in Western democracies.

Both Malaysia and Indonesia are functioning democracies. Malaysia is a middle-income country enjoying a high growth rate. Its Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi promotes a progressive form of Islam called Islam Hadhari or Civilisational Islam.

Indonesia has only recently restored its democracy after a few difficult years of transition from the authoritarian rule of Suharto. For the first time last year, the president and vice-president were elected by universal franchise in nationwide elections that were internationally considered to be free and fair.

When the Indonesian Constitution was promulgated in August 1945, it put all major religions on an equal footing even under a state philosophy called Pancasila even though 85 per cent of the population was Muslim. That founding principle remains the bedrock of Indonesian society.

But it is still a fledgling democracy. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has committed himself to reducing corruption which remains widespread. The Indonesian army still plays a major role in the political arena.

It is in the interest of the US to help Indonesia strengthen its institutions and professionalise its army. We must also remember that some of the world's most important sea lanes pass through Indonesian waters. A stable, secular Indonesia is good for all of us.

In Thailand and the Philippines where there are significant Muslim minorities, in both countries in the south, there is now general acceptance that policies of assimilation would not work. Both governments are prepared to accommodate Muslim minorities in a special way. The alternative is Muslim insurrection and the danger that Muslim communities can become hosts to al Qaeda-type global Islamist terrorist groups of which Jemaah Islamiah is one.

Like other parts of the world, fighting Islamist terrorism in South-east Asia is a difficult, long-term challenge. Cracking down hard on the terrorists and their networks is a necessary but an insufficient condition. We need, at the same time, to accommodate legitimate religious aspirations and practices within multi-religious frameworks. Without such provisions, democracy in South-east Asia cannot deliver stability and growth.

India provides yet another model for the future. It is the world's largest democracy with a well-entrenched legal system. From time to time, terrible religious conflicts break out. In December 1992, Hindus demolished a mosque in Ayodhya which the Mughals had built in the 16th century on the site of an older Hindu temple. This led to religious riots in many cities.

Three years ago, a train carrying Hindu devotees from Ayodhya to Ahmedabad caught fire killing many of them. It was alleged that the train had been set on fire by Muslims. The result was a ferocious Hindu reaction in the state of Gujarat which the police were slow to put down. Thousands of Muslims were killed. However, these flare-ups never last very long. There is a resilience in Indian society which enables it to overcome such problems.

The success or failure of the Indian model will influence neighbouring Muslim Pakistan and Bangladesh. If India's economy continues to grow and enables it to become a major power, Pakistan and Bangladesh will come under pressure to keep up with India.

In the last 10 years, India's growth rate averaged about 6 per cent a year. In the coming years, India is expected to achieve 6 to 7 per cent. For the economies of Pakistan and Bangladesh to grow as fast as India's economy, they will have to adopt policies which are also development-oriented and secular.

After Sept 11 and under US pressure, President Pervez Musharraf took Pakistan down a different road. For the first time since partition in 1947, there is hope that India and Pakistan will be able to reach some kind of a peace agreement while continuing to disagree on Kashmir.

This drama in South Asia encompasses the lives of 1.3 billion people. If South Asians are able to progress like East and South-east Asians, the impact on the Islamic world would be huge. There are about 250 million Muslims in South-east Asia and about 500 million in South Asia. Together, they make up more than half the Muslim population in the world.

Some economic numbers are worth keeping in mind. The combined GDP of East and South-east Asia - Japan, greater China, South Korea and the 10 South-east Asian countries - last year was about US$10 trillion (S$16.3 trillion) compared to US$12 trillion for the US and US$13 trillion for the European Union (EU). If we add India to East and South-east Asia, we have a combined Asian GDP comparable to that of the US and EU today.

In 10 years' time, that GDP will be much greater than that of either the US or the EU. By the middle of the century, the global picture will look quite different. But nothing is inevitable in history and we must expect ups and downs in Asia's development.

However, the trends are quite clear. The growth of Asia is already being felt throughout the Middle East.

Many Middle Eastern countries are now looking eastwards. After Sept 11, the wealthier classes who used to vacation in the West and kept much of their money in London and New York suddenly felt much less welcome. They are now visiting Asia in increasing numbers and parking their funds there in increasing amounts.

The trade links between the Middle East and Asia are strengthening by the day. Last year, China overtook Japan as the world's second largest oil importer. It is growing Chinese demand for energy that is keeping energy prices high. China has become a beneficiary of the Western embargo on Iran.

India is not going to stand still and would like to pipe into India gas from Iran. The politics in the region now allow a gas pipeline to be built from Iran through Pakistan to India. India is completely unpersuaded by the US call not to build this pipeline, although Pakistan may be prevailed upon by the US to prevent the pipeline from crossing its territory.

At the recent meeting between President Musharraf and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, they agreed to consider extending this pipeline all the way through Myanmar to south-west China. In this way, India is assured that Pakistan will not cut off its gas supply from Iran because that gas also goes to Pakistan's staunch ally, China.

The growth of Asia gives countries in the Middle East new options which they did not have in the past. But, more significantly, developments in China, India and South-east Asia offer models of social and political organisation different from the West. They carry less emotional baggage from the past. With globalisation, many more diplomats, businessmen, scholars, tourists and religious teachers travel freely between the Middle East and Asia bringing home new ideas and inspiration.

S'pore in Middle East

AS A moderately successful city-state, Singapore in recent years has been studied all over the Middle East as a development model. Dubai consciously models itself on Singapore and in some respects might have surpassed Singapore. Other Gulf states are doing the same in order to compete against Dubai.

When I attended the Dead Sea World Economic Forum in June 2003, I was pleasantly surprised by the many delegates who cited the Singapore model. My Harvard Business School professor told me last year that he would always be asked to include Singapore cases when conducting courses in the Middle East.

This interest in Singapore is but the beginning of a re-discovery of Asia which will open a new chapter in Middle Eastern history. I believe it will tell a more hopeful story of peaceful interaction between the Middle East and Asia, of the riches brought about by a new China trade.

I represent in Singapore a political district named after an Arab merchant family from the Hadhramaut region of Yemen (Aljunied). The Hadhramis were traders who plied the seas from Zanzibar to South China. This year, we celebrate the 600th anniversary of the first voyage of the great Chinese Muslim eunuch, Admiral Cheng Ho, who sailed all the way to Mombasa in his magnificent treasure ships. Today, 30 per cent of the world's trade passes through the Strait of Malacca.

Israel will benefit politically and economically from the rise of Asia if it positions itself for this new configuration. This was the instinct of the early leaders of Israel. Israel's first prime minister David Ben-Gurion was quick to recognise the People's Republic of China in 1950.

After Singapore separated from Malaysia in 1965, former Israeli prime minister Golda Meir agreed to help Singapore build up its armed forces based on the Israeli system of an armed citizenry. As a young major in the Singapore Air Force, I felt it a privilege to be the bag-carrier for Israeli Air Force commander General David Ivry, who later became Israel's ambassador to the US, when he first visited Singapore in 1980. Two years later, when the Israeli Air Force triumphed spectacularly over the Bekaa Valley, I knew we had the right teacher.

Israel's part in Asia


IN JANUARY 2000, as Singapore's trade minister, I met Israeli trade minister Ran Cohen in Davos. At that time, Israel worked in close cooperation with the Palestinian Authority. Ran Cohen told me that he would like to visit Singapore with his Palestinian counterpart, and together with me, they hoped to travel to a nearby Indonesian island to visit a Singapore industrial estate and meet our Indonesian counterpart there.

The Indonesian president was then Abdurrahman Wahid, a Muslim cleric who viewed Israel sympathetically and counted Shimon Peres among his close friends. Cooperation between Singapore and Indonesia would be an inspiration for Israeli-Palestinian cooperation. I was thrilled and started making preparations the moment I went back to Singapore. Unfortunately, within a few months, Israeli-Palestinian relations went into a downward spiral culminating in the intifada in September. It all seemed such a long time ago. But there is hope again after successful elections in Palestine and Iraq.

Finding the formula for peace in the Middle East is never an easy task. But with Asia making steady progress year by year, the deep trends may turn more favourable. We can't be sure, but we must be alert to new possibilities. For example, I cannot believe that the re-emergence of China and India on the global stage is a negative factor for peace in the Middle East. It is good that Israel is actively engaging both these Asian powers. Last year, in a diplomatic breakthrough, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon became the first Israeli head of government to visit India.

The rise of Asia is also a huge opportunity for the global Jewish community, especially if there is a peace settlement between Israel and Palestine. In non-Muslim Asia, because of a very different history, there is little anti-Semitism.

In China and India, Jews are admired. The Kaifeng Jews, who came to China from Persia in the Song Dynasty a thousand years ago, set the foundation for a long tradition of friendship between China and the Jewish community. During the holocaust, Shanghai was a sanctuary for Jews. Today, the people of Wenzhou, who are among the most enterprising in China, are popularly known as the 'Jews of China'. This is not to say there is no ethnic stereotyping.

There is, of course, all over Asia and it is by no means reserved for Jews alone. But there is little of the anti-Semitism found historically in the Christian world. Even the anti-Semitism of Muslim Asia is more a political reaction to the plight of the Palestinian people than a deeply held racism.

It would be good for the global Jewish community and for Asia generally to have more Jews visit, study, work and live in Asia. As the use of English becomes more widespread in Asia, communication has become much less of a problem. With the encouragement of the Singapore Government, there is a steadily growing Israeli community in Singapore which uses Singapore as a base to operate in Asia.

Singapore's first chief minister was an Iraqi Jew by the name of David Marshall, a man who was a caricature of himself. After he stepped down in 1956 in protest against the refusal of the British to grant immediate independence to Singapore, he went to China to help resolve the problem of citizenship of overseas Chinese in Singapore.

When he was in Shanghai, he was approached by the leader of the Jewish community to appeal to the Chinese government for the release of the Jews who were stranded there after the communists took over in 1949. There were some 500 of them, mostly from Russia whom the Chinese communists detained to placate Stalin. Marshall raised the matter with premier Zhou Enlai himself, arguing that it was as immoral for China to prevent the Jews from leaving as it was for South-east Asia countries to prevent Chinese nationals from returning home. Zhou expressed shock. Not long afterwards, the slow exodus of the Jews out of China began.

There are many, many such stories of Jewish links with Asia, mostly forgotten because of war, revolution and socialist autarky. These stories should now be retold to a younger generation and the old links re-established and built upon. Every change in the tide of civilisation in Europe and the Middle East has had a major impact on the global Jewish community. This new tide flowing from Asia will bring many new opportunities.

Pak Lah comes out fighting

:: THE STAR 7 May 2005 :: By Wong Sulong
I AM glad that, finally, the Prime Minister has come out publicly and forcefully to defend his record of 18 months in office.

In recent months, there have been, first murmurings, then coffeeshop gossip and, recently, serious talk that things are not going too well for Pak Lah’s administration; that the economy is slowing down; the fight against corruption is being wound back; and, to quote one lawyer, “the conductor is excellent but the orchestra is not playing according to his directions.”

Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi chose the Harvard Club of Malaysia annual dinner at the Sunway Lagoon Resort Hotel on Thursday night to answer his detractors. It was the same venue two years ago at a breakfast session with the Oxbridge Society that Abdullah, then Deputy Prime Minister, made his famous “First class infrastructure, Third class mentality” speech.

The two speeches are inter-linked, reflecting what Abdullah sees are the ills and challenges confronting the country; his political philosophy and outlook on life, and how he intends to build on the successes of the four prime ministers before him.

Pak Lah did not try to skirt the issue that some sectors of society are disappointed that things are not moving as fast as before.

“I am aware that there are parts of (our) society as well as foreign commentators who are growing impatient, (and want) to see various things happen. I would like to say here that I genuinely acknowledge these feelings and that I do not dismiss them. I am very much aware of some of the things being said and I treat them as important,” he told his audience.

But the fact is, said Abdullah – and here I must say I agree with him – that Malaysia had shown “good and steady” progress in many areas over the past 18 months, although there is “uneven performance” on certain policy decisions.

It’s very important to understand Pak Lah’s personal make-up and political philosophy, to assess his record and, more importantly, what he’s trying to do.

He is a man of principles, not a populist. That might not be good for a practising politician, but that’s Pak Lah. Mind you, he won the biggest mandate ever of any Malaysian leader during the 2004 general election not by out-foxing the opposition or through wild promises and dirty tricks, but through his sincerity, humility and vision for Malaysia.

But as I said in my previous commentaries – don’t think the man is soft because he is humble and kind. He can be very tough when the occasion demands it.

Take his stewardship of the economy.

Now, he would be the first to acknowledge he is not very much into finance and economics. But he has excellent support in these critical areas, led by Second Finance Minister Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yackop, Minister in charge of the Economic Planning Unit Datuk Mustapa Mohamed, and Governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Aziz at the Central Bank.

When Pak Lah became Prime Minister in October 2003, most of the development funds under the 8th Malaysia Plan (2000-2005) had already been spent or committed to pump-prime the economy.

Another leader under the circumstances might well be tempted to print more money and spend it to make himself popular.

But Abdullah kept to the straight and narrow. He maintained fiscal discipline knowing full well that it would hurt his image among many powerful constituents.

There are 40,000 Class F bumiputra contractors and they are complaining loudly because there are few contracts to go by. The same goes for the big engineering and construction companies.

The Prime Minister has kept to his promise to reduce the budget deficit over the next few years. International bankers and economists might complain about the ringgit peg, but they acknowledge the Government had done a good job managing the economy.

Abdullah regards his commitment to rein in the budget deficit as “the most difficult thing” he had to do.

Last year, the Malaysian economy grew by 7.2%; this year, because of high oil prices, and rising world interest rates, economic expansion is expected to moderate to between 5% and 6%. This is not bad given a less favourable global environment and the continuation of fiscal restraint.

The Prime Minister disagrees with detractors who say the anti-corruption campaign is being rolled back because of political pressure. Pressure there will always be, but the war on graft is very much alive.

Abdullah says the Government will not go after the big fish just to win popularity. Action will be taken after the Anti-Corruption Agency had done its work and when there is sufficient evidence to get a conviction.

Another side of the war on corruption is to evolve a value system that abhors graft. This is the hard part – the software for national development. Changing the mindset takes a long time to nurture and is quite intangible and not quantifiable. The results of what’s being done today may only show up in 10, 20 or even 30 years.

In the insurance business, this is known as “long tail” risks.

For example, the ills that we see today in our society and our education system had their roots in decisions taken 20 or 30 years ago, decisions which were then probably popular or convenient.

Abdullah believes for Malaysia to be a fully developed country (first class infrastructure, first class mentality) Malaysians have to rid themselves of what he called “bad habits” or “addictions.”

For the purpose of his Harvard speech, he cited three addictions:

(i) Addiction to cheap foreign labour. Instead of finding ways to be more labour-efficient, employers prefer to form strong lobby groups and pressure for more cheap labour. Over-dependence on this labour source and its attendant social ills are seen as an acceptable price.

(ii) Addiction to subsidies. The Government will spend more than RM16bil on oil subsidies and foregone revenue this year, which means less money for hospitals, schools and other facilities for people in need. Why should households with five or six cars – luxury cars at that – enjoy the oil subsidies?

(iii) Addiction to rent-seeking. This is an insidious culture where success and rewards, particularly financial, are dependent on the “know who” rather than the “know how.”

From what I could ascertain, the Harvard audience liked what Pak Lah said and was encouraged by his commitment and his pledge that he would not hesitate to “bite the bullet” if it’s good for Malaysia.

Away from the political arena, there is enormous goodwill for what Pak Lah stands for and what he is doing – the wish is he can accelerate a bit more.

On my part I know he will – if he can.

THE BATTLE GOES ON | In the face of the charges against him, Anwar Ibrahim pleads not guilty and vows to continue his fight for reform

ASIAWEEK 9 Oct 1998
HE REALLY DIDN'T NEED to be in court. Having arrested him under the Internal Security Act (ISA), the authorities were under no legal obligation to put him on trial. The draconian law, intended for people perceived to be threats to national security, allows for the detainee to be held initially for up to 60 days without being charged. After that, he or she is either released or incarcerated for two years. After that, the Home Ministry can renew the detention on a two-yearly basis for an indefinite period. But this was no ordinary prisoner. It was former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim - sacked from the government, expelled from the party and arrested under highly controversial circumstances. For all the talk of Anwar being a sodomist, an adulterer and a traitor, nothing in the way of compelling evidence had been produced to justify the dismissal. If the government was to retain any credibility at all, it had to prosecute him and show in an open trial precisely why he was deemed unfit to be in a position of power and authority.

Thus, on Sept. 29 Anwar was produced in Kuala Lumpur's federal courthouse amid tight security to face nine charges: four counts of unnatural sex and five counts of corruption. If the authorities were hoping for some cooperation from Anwar, they didn't get it. "I plead not guilty; I claim trial," he said firmly to each of the charges. (He uttered the same words when he appeared in a courthouse in suburban Petaling Jaya the next day to face an additional sodomy charge.)

He then turned the table on his accusers, claiming that he was the victim of police brutality. When he appeared in court that morning - his first public appearance since his arrest nine days earlier - observers noticed that he was sporting a black eye and a bruised arm. On the first night of his arrest, Anwar charged, he was blindfolded and then punched and slapped by his police handlers until his lips had cracked and his left eye swollen shut. He "passed out" until the morning and was denied medical attention for five days.

In a press conference afterward, Anwar's wife demanded an explanation from the government for his state of health. "There was a hematoma [swelling of blood] on the left eye, a small depression on the left forehead, and his vision was impaired," said Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, an ophthalmologist by training. "This shows my fears [about his safety] were not unfounded." The court allowed an eye doctor to examine Anwar, and the police later announced that an independent investigation would look into his claims.

The matter predictably drew critical reactions from the usual quarters. Both Australian Prime Minister John Howard and the U.S. State Department expressed their concern; "the perpetrators," said the latter, "should be brought to justice." No such words were forthcoming from Asian nations, which generally kept their opinions to themselves (though many of their newspapers ran outraged editorials), or from Anwar's chief adversary, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who suggested that the injuries may have been self-inflicted. (Wan Azizah retorted: "I am shocked that a former medical doctor can say so without personally examining my husband."). Mahathir did add that the authorites would investigate Anwar's complaints.

For all the apparent beating he received, Anwar remained unbowed. "I am in good spirits," he said and vowed to fight on. With Anwar remaining in a defiant mood, a quick resolution to Malaysia's political crisis does not seem to be in the cards. The Mahathir-Anwar saga, it appears, still has a long way to go.

It certainly has come a long way. When Mahathir fired Anwar on Sept. 2, he may have thought that his deputy would fade away in the absence of support and patronage from the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the most powerful party in the ruling coalition. But Anwar went on a nationwide roadshow to present his case; tens of thousands of Malaysians turned out to see him. When he organized a demonstration in central Kuala Lumpur on Sept. 20, up to 50,000 people rallied around his call for reform.

So Mahathir swiftly and firmly cracked down on the incipient movement. Anwar was arrested in a commando-like raid; seventeen others, most of them of his close associates, were also detained under the ISA (five have since been released). Demonstrations supporting the former student activist were broken up by force and over a hundred arrests made. Anwar's wife, Wan Azizah, was threatened with detention under the ISA if she tried to organize more rallies. With its dramatic show of force, the government might have been forgiven for thinking it had cowed both diehard supporters and quiet sympathizers of Anwar into submission.

BUT THEY WEREN'T. ON Sept. 25, after a relatively quiet few days, around 5,000 people staged a protest at Kuala Lumpur's National Mosque after Friday prayers. Shouting "reformasi" - reforms - they called on Mahathir to resign and unfurled banners proclaiming, "Stop the slander." Riot police quickly moved in to put an end to the exercise.

Another face-off took place the following day, Saturday. Protesters started gathering in downtown Merdeka Square. The police first issued a polite warning: We don't want to use force. Please go home. After a second warning, water cannons were deployed to clear the streets. The police continued to break up pockets of protest into the evening. Thirteen people were arrested.

Still, the protests refused to die down. Yet another one took place near the square on Sept. 28, despite the fact that the authorities had closed the area off to the public. About 1,000 Anwar supporters congregated and jeered at the riot squads stationed to prevent people from entering the square. Displaying less delicacy than on Saturday, the police moved in with batons and electric prods, beating those unfortunate enough to get caught. Scores more were taken into custody.

If the continuing demonstrations indicate anything, it is that sympathy for Anwar runs deep. Part of the reason is no doubt his campaign to take his case to the people, and his constant agitations to clear his name and attack the administration. He has been able to strike back at his accusers even after his arrest. On Sept. 24, a videotaped testimony by Anwar was aired worldwide on cable news channel CNBC. In the message, Anwar portrayed himself as a champion of the people who has fallen victim to vested interests. "What is my sin?" he asked. "My sin was wanting to protect truth, justice and the interests of the people."

UMNO leaders have not been sitting idly by during Anwar's p.r. blitz. After an initial period of silence, Mahathir himself has been speaking in public regularly to defend his position and attack Anwar. On Sept. 22, he told the press that he initially did not believe the sodomy allegations against Anwar but was forced to change his mind in the face of witness testimonies. Three days later, he used his speech at an UMNO women's conference to swing away at his erstwhile deputy. Labeling homosexuality as "disgusting," he declared: "In Malaysia, we cannot accept a leader who has a strange behavior." He also played the nationalism card, asserting that a sexually immoral leader would be vulnerable to foreign pressure.

Mahathir's position received a boost when Hanif Omar, the respected former inspector-general of police, recently revealed that his officers had gathered evidence of Anwar's homosexuality as far back as 1993. According to Hanif, he reported the matter to Mahathir and was later summoned by Anwar, who "did not ask me how the evidence was obtained but wanted to know if my officers would use the evidence to blackmail him. I told him that the police were not in the blackmail business and advised him to stop indulging in homosexuality."

Many Malaysians, though, still have doubts about the official line. UMNO leaders concede that the biggest problem they face is winning the hearts of the people. "I am now inclined to accept that Anwar did all the things," says an UMNO MP. "But ordinary people - my own family, friends, people in my division, the little guys I meet - they're just not convinced. I don't know how we're going to convince them." An official close to the PM's office notes: "It has become a matter of faith. Those who are inclined toward the prime minister will believe him. Those who aren't won't."

The level of faith in the judiciary is also a factor. "People remember how Mahathir debauched the judicial system in the 1980s by firing judges who disagreed with him," says a former cabinet minister and retired UMNO leader. "They know that the judiciary doesn't have the credibility it once had." To which Chief Justice Mohamed Eusoff Chin responds: "I am not under anyone's control. I do not instruct my judges on what sort of fines or jail sentences to mete out."

Yet lawyers for the defense certainly question the due process - or the lack thereof - afforded Anwar and those charged in related cases. Take the case of Anwar's onetime tennis partner, S. Nallakaruppan, who was charged in August under the ISA for possession of 125 unlicensed bullets. On Sept. 2, he made a routine request to be moved back to prison from the police headquarters where he was being held. The police responded with four now-infamous affidavits stating why he shouldn't be transferred; the documents contended that he had acted as the middleman in Anwar's sexual trysts. They also alluded to possible treasonous activities, stating that since Nallakaruppan "often accompanies Anwar Ibrahim on his duties abroad, it is feared that his activities can be exploited by mischievous elements in and out of the country that want to jeopardize national security."

ACCORDING TO NALLAKARUPPAN'S LAWYER Manjeet Singh Dhillon, because the local newspapers were allowed to publish the affidavits even before any charges were filed - an unprecedented occurrence, he says - Anwar's legal case has been severely compromised. "The way events unfolded, has not everyone been prejudiced against Anwar in any likely defense by the amount of material produced against him?" asks Manjeet. "Will this not prejudice the man's eventual trial?"

Then there are the cases of Sukma Darmawan and Munawar Anees, Anwar's adopted brother and former speechwriter respectively. On Sept. 19, both pleaded guilty to being sodomized by Anwar and were sentenced to six months in prison. It was alleged that Sukma, an Indonesian immigrant, gave in to Anwar's homosexual advances because he felt indebted to the former deputy PM for helping him get Malaysian citizenship; Munawar consented because he feared losing his job. A Kuala Lumpur lawyer admits to being mystified by the claims. "Why Munawar, who has U.S. citizenship and a Ph.D. from an American university, would fear losing his job which pays half as much as his last job in the U.S. is a bit puzzling," he says.

Manjeet, who now also represents Munawar, says it is unusual that the two men, rather than being protected as victims of a sexual crime, were prosecuted instead. He cites a recent sodomy trial in which the alleged victim was not charged or even named in the newspapers. Manjeet points out other irregularities: Munawar's family was not informed when he would be charged, and the lawyer retained by his wife was not allowed to represent him. On Sept. 29, both men lodged an appeal against their sentences. And perhaps most significantly, Mahathir himself already declared, even before any charges were filed, that "I'm quite sure [Anwar] will be found guilty."

The heavy-handed tactics against Anwar and his followers have reminded the public of the government's authoritarian tendencies and added to the sense that corruption and injustice still prevail. Sensing the mood, a host of opposition parties, youth organizations and human-rights groups have gotten together to fight for political reform. On Sept. 27, Gagasan Demokratik Rakyat (Coalition for People's Democracy) came into being; the 18-member grouping includes opposition groups such as the Democratic Action Party and the Islamic Party of Malaysia, as well as the ABIM Muslim youth movement and human-rights advocates Suaram.

Many of the same organizations also formed the 13-member Gerakan Keadilan Rakyat Malaysia (Malaysian People's Movement for Justice), which calls for an independent judiciary and the abolition of the ISA. Activist Mohamed Nasir Hashim, whose (as-yet-unregistered) Socialist Party of Malaysia belongs to both groupings, admits to being no friend of Anwar, whom he remembers as having supported the ISA when he was in office. "But the way Anwar was sacked and then treated has become the issue," he says. "The detention, the character assassination - these things have been blatant." He adds: "The issue now goes beyond Anwar and has become an attack on the ISA. There have long been frustrations over many issues, including the economy, and this has every chance of snowballing."

Even within UMNO, the word is that the sacking of Anwar - and his subsequent vilification and maltreatment - has severely shaken many members. The Supreme Council is likely to discuss whether Mahathir should appoint a new deputy PM - or someone with a similar title like senior minister - in order to fill the vacuum and let the party's healing process begin. A national healing process, though, may be much harder to come by.n

- With reporting by Santha Oorjitham and Arjuna Ranawana

CRACKDOWN | Anwar Ibrahim and his associates are arrested as Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad harshly lays down the law

ASIAWEEK 2 Oct 1998
FOR A "MINOR DISTRACTION," it certainly required some major action. For weeks, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad had insisted that his onetime deputy's reform - and increasingly anti-government - movement was a peripheral matter of little significance. But when time came for Anwar Ibrahim to be arrested, the unfolding events resembled less a detainment of an inconsequential figure than a full-blown anti-terrorist operation by a crack commando unit.

It all began on Sunday evening, Sept. 20, when the authorities stationed baton-wielding riot police outside Anwar's residence. Two police helicopters hovered overhead, bathing the area with powerful searchlights. Then at around 9 p.m., balaclava-clad men with bulletproof vests and submachine guns broke down the front door and stormed into the house, where Anwar, 51, was conducting a press conference. The raiders, who belonged to the elite Special Action Force, manhandled some of the journalists and confiscated their notebooks and tape recorders before throwing the hacks out of the house.

The arresting officer told Anwar he was being detained under the charge of unnatural sexual acts. The police stayed in the house for an hour while they wrangled with the former deputy PM's lawyers. Anwar told his supporters present to be calm and packed his clothes. While his faithful jostled with the police and chanted slogans, he was bundled into a police van with his wife, Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, and children. Before the vehicle had traveled far, it was stopped and Anwar was transferred to an unmarked police car. Wan Azizah was told she could go home; Anwar was taken to a maximum-security prison outside Kuala Lumpur.

The dramatic arrest, if long anticipated, still came as something of a surprise. After he was sacked on Sept. 2 under a cloud of accusations ranging from sexual misconduct to sedition, Anwar charged that a political conspiracy had been behind his ouster and vowed to fight what he claimed was a corrupt, repressive government. While leaders of Mahathir's United Malays National Organization (UMNO) and the government-controlled media lined up behind the PM, the former student firebrand took his cause to the people, traveling across the country in a bid to mobilize grassroots support. Throughout, Mahathir, 72, steadfastly ignored his erstwhile heir apparent's agitations, maintaining he would not make a political martyr out of Anwar by arresting him. Many observers believed him, reasoning that the PM would at least wait until the country had finished hosting the Commonwealth Games.

The arrest, which came a day before the Games closed, put an end to all such predictions. Mahathir, for all his penchant for thumbing his nose at international opinion, probably did not plan to crack down on Anwar at this time, certainly not with Britain's Queen Elizabeth II in town to close the Games. But his hand may have been forced by events earlier that day on Sept. 20.

That afternoon, a pro-Anwar demonstration was scheduled to be held in Merdeka (Independence) Square in downtown Kuala Lumpur. The rally was intended to coincide with Queen Elizabeth's visit to St. Mary's Cathedral just across the street. But the Anwar venue was switched to the National Mosque, three-quarters of a kilometer from the square - to avoid trouble with police.

By about 4:30 p.m., some 30,000 to 50,000 people had gathered in front of the mosque. Speaking from the building's balcony, Anwar denounced the administration and called on his former mentor to step down. "Malaysians have waited long enough," he told the cheering crowd in English. "We have given Mahathir enough time. Enough is enough. He should resign!" He then switched to Tamil - "Mahathir, go!" - using the word podah, not the politest form of the verb.

Anwar then called on the crowd to march to Merdeka Square. Chanting "Reformasi [Reform]!" and "Allah-o-Akbar [God is supreme]!", the demonstrators made their way north, up the main thoroughfare of Jalan Sultan Hishamuddin, as traffic policemen frantically tried to control the resulting gridlock. When asked why he came, a student replied: "I want to hear what Anwar says. That is the real story. We want change." What about Anwar's alleged sodomy and adultery as reported in the newspapers? "We don't believe the damned papers. They all lie. They think we're stupid."

The protesters pushed their way into the square, trampling over police barricades erected around it. Red-helmeted riot police present at the scene withdrew, making no attempt to stem the human tide. Amid shouts for reform, Anwar was hoisted on the shoulders of some of his supporters and carried around the field to meet the people. Meanwhile, other supporters distributed yellow postcards with a large black question mark and a cheeky question to the PM (who is a physician by training): "What's up, doc?"

IT WAS PERHAPS NOT so much a case of unequivocal support for Anwar as deepening discontent over the government's perceived heavy-handedness. At the scene was Mohamed Nasir, a former professor of medicine at the National University of Malaysia. The demonstration, he said, "is the culmination of the frustrations of ordinary people. I have never seen a crowd like this. It is mixed; all strata of society are here." He accepted that unrest has tended to follow economic downturns. "But this is big." Queen Elizabeth, though, was not there to witness it, having left the church an hour earlier.
The Merdeka rally wound to a close as dusk was approaching. Most participants dispersed peacefully, though a group of around 3,000 demonstrators broke off to head north toward UMNO headquarters to continue their protest there. (They then traveled several kilometers southwest to Mahathir's residence.) Anwar was whisked home on a motorcycle.

Peaceful though the exercise was, it was apparently the last straw for UMNO leaders. Instead of fizzling as they had hoped, Anwar's movement seemed to be going from strength to strength. With the Merdeka rally, Anwar showed himself to be a force that could no longer be ignored - and the gloves had to come off, Games or no Games. A few hours later, in their first show of force, police used batons, tear gas and water cannons to disperse the protesters who had reached Mahathir's house. Meanwhile, two kilometers away, Anwar was arrested.

As the day came to a close, many observers were left with a sense of shock. The clash at the PM's residence, says history professor Khoo Kay Kim of the University of Malaya, was "quite unusual. We were all taken aback. This has never happened before."

There was more to come. On the morning of Sept. 21, some 1,500 demonstrators returned to Merdeka Square, congregating outside the adjacent federal courthouse where Anwar was due to appear to be charged. This time, the riot police showed none of the restraint they had displayed the previous afternoon. Firing tear gas and water cannons, they engaged in running battles with the protesters, as well as any unfortunate bystander who happened to be in the way. "The crowds did not attack the police," says a social activist. "They were protesting the arrest of Anwar and were violently dispersed." Around 50 people, including some hapless office workers in designer ties out for lunch, were taken away in police vans. Later that evening, young supporters of Anwar staged a march to the National Stadium, where the closing ceremony of the Commonwealth Games was being held, but police managed to prevent them from disrupting the proceedings.

Meanwhile, the government began cracking down on Anwar's people in earnest. Even before the former deputy PM was arrested, two of his associates were convicted of "gross indecency" and each sentenced to six months in prison. In two separate trials, Anwar's adopted brother, Sukma Darmawan, and former speechwriter, Munawar Anees, pleaded guilty to allowing themselves to be sodomized by Anwar. Anwar, who has denied all charges - sexual or otherwise - against him, maintains that the two men were forced to make false confessions.

For his part, Mahathir insisted in a Sept. 22 press conference that he had personally interviewed the people Anwar allegedly sodomized. "I cannot accept a man who is a sodomist to become the leader of this country," he intoned. The issue is a crucial one. If Malaysians are convinced Anwar engaged in homosexual acts, his political career would be effectively over in what is largely a conservative Muslim society. Mahathir added that Anwar "instigated his followers to riot. He was working up emotion to develop the situation found in Indonesia. They hoped that they could overthrow the government."

The day after his arrest, Anwar - and 11 key allies - were officially held under the Internal Security Act (ISA), which allows for the detainee to be held without being charged. (The visiting Queen might have reflected on the fact that the ISA was introduced to Malaysia, as well as Singapore, by the colonial British, who used it against communist insurgents.) This was Anwar's second detention under the ISA, the first being in 1974 when he was, as he is now again, an anti-government activist.

In the beginning there were conflicting statements from the police over his arrest, giving the impression that they disagreed over what to charge Anwar with. Initially, it was understood that he would be charged with sexual indecency - a logical enough progression given the sodomy convictions of Sukma and Munawar. Then the police public-relations department said he had been arrested under laws governing civil unrest. But Anwar never appeared in court on Sept. 21 to be charged on either count, and it was later announced that he was being held under the ISA. The authorities now say they will bring specific charges -such as the sodomy ones - against Anwar very soon.

NOW THAT ANWAR AND his key associates are behind bars, the leadership of the reform movement has passed to Wan Azizah, who has vowed to carry on her husband's work. She has agreed to police demands that she refrain from holding public meetings, but she remains defiant. "This evening three police officers came to my place and told me not to have rallies," she told reporters on Sept. 21. "That is why I am not using a microphone. Yet I must have the right to speak on behalf of my husband." Since then, the authorities have sought to tighten their grip, threatening Wan Azizah with arrest if she did not comply, surrounding her home with policemen and officially banning all pro-Anwar demonstrations.

For now, the government appears to have control over the situation - but it has come at a huge price. The Commonwealth Games, which was supposed to be a coming-of-age event for Malaysia, took a back seat to the disturbances. Lost amid the news and pictures of riot police swinging their clubs at protesters was the fact that Malaysia won 10 gold medals and came fourth in the medals table. The government did not help its case by jamming broadcasts of the clashes, thereby earning the ire of foreign TV networks. The international press, never known for their warm relations with Mahathir, were predictably critical of the PM. The Jakarta Post called the events a "disgrace for Mahathir," while the Sydney Morning Herald wrote that the PM was risking "turning his country into a mini-Indonesia and himself into a poor man's Suharto." Indonesians of course know plenty about repression, and prominent lawyer Adnan Buyung Nasution, head of the recently formed Indonesian Solidarity for Anwar Ibrahim, pledged his moral support for the detained politician. "The ISA is more cruel than Indonesia's subversion law," he declared.

There were more international reactions. Canberra warned that Malaysia's political crisis could jeopardize the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit scheduled for November in Kuala Lumpur. Other governments, Tokyo and Bangkok among them, were more judicious in their comments, but nevertheless voiced their concern over the situation. Even China stated its wish to see Malaysia restore political stability.

Malaysia's standing and credibility are of course not the only things hit by the unrest. The economy, already subject to a slew of financial controls, may be another victim. Chia Yew Boon, head of research at Santandar Investments in Singapore, says that the recent events may drive away overseas investors: "The Anwar arrest and the unrest have dramatically raised the political risk premium in a country whose big plus point was its political stability."

The main question revolves around Mahathir's own future. The political machinery backing Mahathir cannot be easily overcome. "Going by history, [the unrest] should simmer down," predicts history professor Khoo. "People have found that if you take on the government, you can't win." Even Singapore Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew, who over the years has repeatedly upset Malaysia (most recently with his memoirs), has placed his bet on Mahathir's survival. "I am prepared to wager five to one," he said. "I am not saying Anwar Ibrahim has not got a following. What I am saying is that there are institutional checks and balances and systems that will not allow civil order to be upset."

Likewise, Harold Crouch, an East Asia expert at the Australian National University, feels that Mahathir will survive. "Malaysia is not Indonesia," he notes. "It is much more prosperous." He also thinks that conditions are not ripe for the kind of middle-class uprisings experienced by South Korea and the Philippines a decade ago. But Crouch predicts that Mahathir's credibility will gradually erode and that his party peers will increasingly view him as a liability.

Mahathir insists that the "vast majority" of Malaysians are happy with the government. The recent events suggest, however, that the country is somewhat divided over the matter. If that is the case, Mahathir may still be able to lead the country. But it doesn't say much for his mandate - and it doesn't yet put an end to the spirit Anwar unleashed.

- With additional reporting by Arjuna Ranawana and Santha Oorjitham

REACHING CRITICAL MASS | Anwar has the rallies; Mahathir has the clout

ASIAWEEK 25 Sept 1998 | By Assif Shameen and Sangwon Suh
THE AUTHORITIES DID EVERYTHING they could, short of resorting to force, to prevent the evening rally. The meeting hall where the gathering was supposed to take place was padlocked and the electricity disconnected. Local radio stations continually broadcast that a police permit had not been issued for the meeting. When the crowds began to form, the police told them to disperse as the speaker was probably not going to turn up - and even if he did, he could not address them since he did not have clearance to do so.

In the end, though, the pulling power of the speaker prevailed. By 10 p.m., some 20,000 people had congregated outside the meeting hall, undeterred by the fact that there were no lights and it was pitch-dark. A collective cry of jubilation greeted the speaker, the recently sacked deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, as he climbed atop his parked car with a microphone. While the crowd chanted, "Reformasi, reformasi! [Reforms, reforms]," Anwar lived up to his reputation as a fiery orator. "I want to wipe out corruption!" he told his cheering supporters. "I will never give up!"

To an outsider, the Sept. 13 rally - which took place near the southern town of Malacca and was part of a quick weekend tour of three states by Anwar - might have seemed like a relatively tame exercise by an ousted leader in making a few political points. But in the Malaysian context, the meeting and others like it are nothing short of a direct confrontation with the government. While political rallies are allowed, no more than four people can assemble in public without a police permit (larger gatherings at home can be held without informing the authorities). Opposition parties conduct their meetings indoors in assembly halls and even those need a permit, which isn't always forthcoming. The rules are relaxed only every five years, when campaigning for general elections takes place.

Now Anwar is shaking up this state of affairs. Two weeks after he was controversially fired by PM Mahathir Mohamad amid unsubstantiated allegations of sodomy, adultery and treason, the onetime student activist is continuing to attract huge crowds in his (technically illegal) rallies across the country. A day before the Malacca gathering, Anwar was in Pokok Sena in Kedah state, less than 10 km from Mahathir's birthplace and constituency. At least 60,000 people turned out to see him. "I am really reinvigorated by the Kedah crowd," a sleepy-eyed Anwar later told Asiaweek. "I expected a big crowd, but we also knew it was the PM's area. The numbers we got were amazing, way beyond our wildest expectations." He adds: "After I have been charged and tried in the local media, it is heartening to see that rural folks don't believe in government propaganda."

Anwar, who maintains that the accusations against him are part of a high-level conspiracy by his political enemies to frame him, says he has been forced to take his case directly to the people because he has been given no chance to rebut the allegations, which local newspapers have been giving daily coverage to. Anwar now plans to take his road show farther afield, visiting such states as Kelantan and Sabah. "As long as I am allowed to, I would like go around the country and explain why we need reforms now," he says.

That Anwar's campaign seems to be gaining momentum has not escaped the notice of Mahathir's United Malays National Organization, the most powerful party in the ruling coalition. "The rallies are getting bigger and Anwar is becoming a concern," says one ranking UMNO leader. "But who knows how many of these guys are genuine supporters and how many are curious onlookers? This will fizzle in a month or so, or as soon as specific charges are laid against him."

That sentiment is shared by many other UMNO leaders, who are expecting Anwar to eventually fade away into political oblivion. Without the perks and privileges provided by the party, a politician cannot last long in Malaysia, as can be attested by former deputy PM Musa Hitam and former finance minister Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. Both men spent years in the political wilderness following their failed bid to unseat Mahathir in 1987. A former UMNO MP points out, however, that Anwar belongs to a different breed. "Anwar is not like Musa or Razaleigh," he says. "He is a street fighter like Mahathir."STILL, IT CANNOT BE denied that Anwar's already limited clout in the political sphere is rapidly diminishing. Knowing which side their bread is buttered, the majority of UMNO leaders have come out in support of Mahathir's decision to sack him. The few whose sympathies openly lie with Anwar are finding themselves under pressure. Foremost among them is UMNO Youth chief Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who indirectly criticized Mahathir for alleged nepotism and cronyism during the party's general assembly last June.

In the aftermath of Anwar's dismissal, Zahid has come under fire from other Youth wing members for failing to pledge his support for the PM. "We've lost faith in the ability and credibility of Zahid to lead the movement," says Zein Isma Ismail, a member of the Youth wing's executive council. Despite calls for his resignation, Zahid has refused to quit, saying he would leave it up to the UMNO Supreme Council to decide his fate. Other Anwar supporters in the Youth wing facing an uncertain future are secretary-general Saifuddin Nasution, Penang chief Abdul Rahim Ghouse and Negri Sembilan head Ruslan Kassim.

Perhaps confident that its position remains solid, the government has so far refrained from cracking down on Anwar's road show. There is, of course, another reason for the official leniency. Well-placed UMNO sources point to the ongoing Commonwealth Games in Kuala Lumpur. "Queen Elizabeth is going to be here soon, along with the entire British tabloid press," says one insider. "The last thing Mahathir wants right now is for reporters to spoil the Commonwealth Games by focusing on Anwar." Anwar himself jokingly told a foreign television crew: "They haven't taken me away because you guys are around and the Commonwealth Games are still on."

But once the athletes go home, the gloves may come off. The betting is that after the Games end on Sept. 21, Anwar will be charged with anything from sexual misconduct to sedition and treason, and perhaps even detained. (Already, says the former deputy PM, several of his associates plus his adopted brother have been arrested.) Inspector-General of Police Rahim Noor also says Anwar will be charged for holding unauthorized rallies.

Assuming Anwar is imprisoned, this doesn't necessarily mean the road ahead is going to be easy for UMNO. "Next year's UMNO elections will be the most fiercely contested in the history of the party," predicts a former UMNO minister. "Even if Anwar is in jail by then, the elections will be divisive. The wounds from the contest to fill the vacuum left by Anwar will take years to heal."

Anwar himself is trying to make the best of whatever time he has left. In addition to traveling around the country to mobilize support and build up a popular power base, Anwar has been producing audio and video tapes of his speeches and press conferences since the ouster. Websites, too, have emerged in support. "The tapes are selling very well," says Anwar. "I have tried to tell my side of the story. If I get arrested, hopefully there will be enough tapes around to reach all corners of the country." He adds: "In Iran, Ayatollah Khomeini started his revolution by spreading his tapes." What if the authorities ban them? "They can't kill the spirit of reform and change." The question is how that spirit of reform will fare if the man who gave it life is behind bars.

- With additional reporting by Santha Oorjitham/Kuala Lumpur

BATTLE OF WILLS | Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad may control all the levers of power

ASIAWEEK 18 Sept 1998 | By Sangwon Suh and Assif Shameen / Kuala Lumpur
IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN a straightforward show of support for the prime minister - but for one man. On Sept. 5, Mahathir Mohamad was meeting with some regional leaders of his United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the dominant party of Malaysia's ruling coalition. He used the occasion to allow one of his vocal supporters, Supreme Council member Ibrahim Ali, to lash out at former deputy PM Anwar Ibrahim, controversially dismissed by Mahathir three days earlier amid accusations of illicit sexual activities and other offenses. As the PM was about to wind up the meeting claiming unanimous support for the sacking, state assemblyman Kamaruddin Mohamed Nor stood up to voice his objections. The longtime Anwar ally told Mahathir that if only he would allow people to speak their minds, he would realize there was much less conformity of views. Furthermore, Kamaruddin said, the evidence being cited for Anwar's alleged sexual misconduct was flimsy.

"Under Islamic law, a Muslim who accuses another of adultery better have solid, corroborative evidence," he said. "False or less-than-solid evidence is punishable by 80 lashes under Islam's shariah law. Since I am not convinced there is enough evidence, as a Muslim I have to register my dissent." Kamaruddin later told friends that irrespective of what happens to Anwar, "I have to answer to my creator one day."

Whether motivated by his conscience or simply a desire to defend an old friend, Kamaruddin's was a defiant act. The sacking of Anwar as deputy PM and finance minister, and his expulsion from UMNO and the party's deputy presidency, has stunned not only Malaysia but much of the region. At home, ordinary Malaysians have been flocking to Anwar's house in droves to show their support. Abroad, says Abdul Razak Abdullah Baginda of the Malaysian Strategic Research Center, "many in ASEAN are shocked - they didn't expect [Anwar's dismissal]." Anwar's aides say ASEAN dignitaries have called their boss to commiserate, most notably Indonesian President B.J. Habibie. Philippine President Joseph Ejercito Estrada describes Anwar as "a good friend." He adds: "Prime Minister Mahathir has allowed pride to get the better of him, at the expense of his people and country."

Precious few Malaysian government and party officials agree with such sentiments, at least not openly. During a late-night UMNO Supreme Council meeting held on Sept. 3 - a day after Anwar was stripped of his cabinet posts - he was given the chance to defend himself. None of his peers present offered their support. Instead, they asked him to resign from his party post; he refused. Anwar left the meeting early; as he departed from the building, he signaled to his grassroots supporters gathered outside that he had been axed by running his finger across his throat. As expected, Mahathir announced half an hour later that his onetime heir apparent had been expelled from UMNO. The reason? "We find him not suitable, that's all," said the PM.

By then, the consequences of crossing Mahathir were already apparent to Anwar's family, who experienced firsthand how far the government was prepared to go to move them out of their official residence. At precisely 5:30 p.m. on Sept. 2, as of when Anwar was no longer the deputy PM and finance minister, "electricity was cut off and we had to use a backup generator," says his wife Wan Azizah Wan Ismail. "Next day, they cut off the water. We knew Mahathir was going to be very petty, so we moved as quickly as we could to our own house." As soon as the sacking was made public, Wan Azizah paid a visit to Mahathir's wife Siti Hasmah (the two official residences of the PM and deputy PM are just a few hundred meters apart). "She's aways been very motherly. When I got to her house we both looked at each other and cried," says Wan Azizah. "She told me: 'I am so sorry. My husband would not have fired your husband if he wasn't convinced all the allegations on sex, leaking official secrets and endangering national security were true.' " When she heard those words, says Wan Azizah, she left.

THE OFFICIAL ISOLATION OF Anwar continued in the days following his removal. The docile local press gave front-page coverage to the government line and the lurid details of Anwar's alleged sexual improprieties. Various UMNO leaders came out one after another to express their support for Mahathir. Most urged Malaysians to put their trust in Mahathir, saying there must have been good reason to sack Anwar. Typical was the statement from Foreign Minister Abdullah Badawi, who said that the PM must have had solid evidence to act as he did. The exact nature of this evidence, though, was left unclear. When asked about Anwar's denials, Abdullah replied that it was up to the accused to prove his innocence, adding: "I'm sure there is proof against him too."
Such professions of faith have so far failed to satisfy many Malaysians. Among them are, naturally, Anwar supporters. The Muslim Youth Movement of Malaysia (known by its Malay initials ABIM), of which Anwar was once the leader, claims that vested interests in the government were responsible for their former leader's ouster. "We believe there is a political conspiracy," says current head Ahmad Azam Abdul Rahman. "There are some people with political interests who thought the ascension of Anwar as PM would affect their political life."

Many ordinary Malaysians are also among the skeptical. "There is some discontent on the ground and people are very confused," admits a pro-Mahathir MP. An ethnic-Indian pharmacist, visiting Anwar's home on Sept. 6 as a "concerned citizen," expresses that kind of confusion and resentment. "The local press is very deceptive," he says. "Why was [Anwar] suddenly disposed of? There are so many things which are not normal - the legal process, the case against him." According to well-placed UMNO sources, a recent official opinion poll revealed that nearly 70% of those questioned did not believe the charges against Anwar. "Mahathir owes the people of Malaysia a lot more than a smorgasbord of [incredible] allegations," said a statement from the local human-rights group Suaram.

In an attempt to boost the government's position against Anwar, Mahathir sought to clarify matters in a meeting with UMNO grassroots leaders on Sept. 8. It was his first public statement on the affair since Anwar was thrown out of the party. Addressing some 3,000 division leaders and other officials, he explained that low morals had led to Anwar's dismissal. He initially did not believe the sexual allegations, he said, but was eventually left with little choice in the face of witness testimonies. "I did my own investigation and questioned all the witnesses myself and came to the conclusion that Anwar was guilty of moral misconduct and therefore not fit to lead the country," he said. Mahathir also expressed regret for the high-profile sacking, saying he would have let Anwar go quietly if the latter had agreed to resign. "I brought him into UMNO," he reminded the gathering of party stalwarts. "He was my friend."

It was, by all accounts, a masterly performance. The PM was a picture of calm confidence, assertive yet magnanimous enough not to directly attack his former deputy. Instead, he painted himself as someone betrayed by a trusted protégé conniving to challenge him. The audience was moved enough to give Mahathir a standing ovation. Others, though, were less impressed (among them a young UMNO delegate who shouted, "Lies, lies, lies!", before walking out in the middle of Mahathir's address). The PM may have revealed the steps leading up to the dismissal, but he still had not offered any evidence of Anwar's alleged misdeeds.

That might change soon. The police are continuing to investigate the allegations against Anwar. S. Nallakaruppan, a sometime tennis chum of Anwar, is currently in police custody under the Internal Security Act for illegal possession of ammunition (the offense carries a mandatory death sentence). In relation to the case, police recently filed affidavits claiming that Nallakaruppan acted as a middleman who arranged for Anwar to have sexual trysts with both men and women. In addition, the allegations went, Nallakaruppan gave Anwar millions of dollars during the 1995 general elections and could have leaked state secrets through his access to the ousted leader.

For his part, Nallakaruppan has denied all the charges, claiming that, with the threat of the death penalty hanging over his head, police tried to coerce him into signing statements implicating the ex-deputy PM. Anwar himself maintains that the allegations are part of a "high-level conspiracy" hatched by his political enemies. Some of his associates accuse Domestic Trade Minister Megat Junid Megat Ayub, Kedah Chief Minister Sanusi Junid and the PM's political secretary Aziz Shamsuddin of masterminding the anti-Anwar campaign. They claim that the trio, who felt Anwar was getting too powerful, poisoned Mahathir's mind against his erstwhile deputy. Other Anwar supporters blame Special Functions Minister Daim Zainuddin, saying he was angry that Anwar was not giving preferential treatment to his business interests and those of his close friends.

NOTWITHSTANDING THE LURID DESCRIPTIONS in the media of her husband's alleged sexcapades, Wan Azizah has stood gamely by her man. "I know he's innocent," she insists. "He is the father of our six children. He's an honest, deeply religious man." Not to mention a charismatic leader and a born warrior. Anwar has promised to fight back; he says he will launch a reform movement to eliminate corruption and repression, vowing to take his struggle to the people.
If support for his cause grows among the grassroots, he could well turn out to be a formidable opponent for Mahathir. A former student radical, Anwar is known as a tireless agitator and a fiery orator. Glimpses of his activist past could be seen immediately after his sacking, when he declared in a press statement: "Justice will not come as a gift. We must fight for it."

Then on Sept. 4, he addressed a crowd of some 2,000 while attending Friday prayers at a mosque. Launching into an impassioned speech, he called on the people to fight for their rights and threw pointed, if rhetorical, questions at Mahathir and his cronies: "For how long do you want power? For how long do you want to monopolize wealth? How much longer do you want to cheat the people?"

For all his populist appeal, though, Anwar faces an uphill battle - and not just because an arrest is hanging over his head. He lacks the support of a crucial element - political machinery. His new-found status as a political outsider has led many friends and supporters to desert him. Most of his former UMNO colleagues have been rallying around Mahathir - and for a good (if self-serving) reason. As an establishment party, UMNO "is able to dole out patronage," says academic and social activist Chandra Muzaffar. That means money, protection, contracts, cheap shares and other perks for its members.

Outsiders, on the other hand, can expect to be politically marginalized due to their limited funds. If especially unlucky, they might even discover that they are targets of a full-blown persecution. "A lot of people learned that from the Razaleigh split in 1988," says Chandra. That was when onetime finance minister Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah broke away from UMNO and formed a new party following his failed bid to unseat Mahathir. The government subsequently blocked bank loans to some of his supporters, to the detriment of their businesses.

Still, Anwar's charisma, networking skills and popular support may be able to compensate for any lack of patronage from UMNO. His cause can draw support from his old youth group ABIM, as well as from members of UMNO's Youth wing, many of whom are discreetly loyal to Anwar. For now, he is keeping his options open as to whether he should form a new party or work with existing organizations.

AS FOR MAHATHIR - and the country in general - what lies ahead? One story currently making the rounds is that Mahathir, who had a multiple heart-bypass operation in 1989, is ailing (those attending the Sept. 8th UMNO session were twice asked to pray for the PM's health). According to this theory, one reason Mahathir's associates pushed him into acting against Anwar was that they did not want to see Anwar succeed him should his health break down. Now with the No. 2 post wide open, many powerbrokers are seeking to dictate their terms and make deals for the post-Mahathir era, whenever it comes.
Mahathir has said that he would not be naming anyone to replace Anwar as deputy prime minister. Instead, a new position of senior minister could be established, a leading candidate for which is Foreign Minister Abdullah. This, however, doesn't mean he is the heir apparent. Traditionally, the deputy president of the party has also filled the position of deputy PM - and hence that of the PM's anointed successor. Next year, at least three candidates are expected to run for the deputy presidency: Abdullah, Razaleigh (now back in UMNO) and Education Minister Najib Tun Razak. None has an outright edge. A complicating factor is that all have at some point been at odds with Mahathir.

Manu Bhaskaran of Singapore-based SG Securities Asia says that the uncertainty in the political succession reduces the attraction of Malaysia in the eyes of foreign investors. "Just like people used to ask: After Suharto, who? Now it is: After Mahathir, who?" he says. Malaysia was always seen as one of the most politically stable countries in the region, with a long history of smooth successions. "All this was a big plus for investors. But now, the political risk premium in Malaysia has risen dramatically." That risk premium will rise even more if the government arrests Anwar and cracks down on dissidents, as many human-rights groups and oppositionists are predicting.

Moreover, Malaysia, once one of the most open of the region's economies, has just put up restrictive capital controls, in direct contradiction of conventional free-market theory. "The massive reflating and pump-priming measures will work in the short run by boosting growth and pushing up the stock market," says Bhaskaran. "But in the long run, the pain will far outweigh the temporary gains of the coming months." Coupled with the increasing political risk, this is likely to put a further damper on investment inflows.

That probably won't overly concern Mahathir, who has never put too much stock on what foreigners say or do. A more pressing concern is the domestic situation - namely, Anwar's challenge. For now, the government seems to be letting Anwar agitate on the periphery, in the hopes that he will fade away eventually. Whether Anwar does or not hinges partly on the speed of the economic recovery. If the new exchange-control measures, which Anwar has blasted as a "jingoistic outburst," do not bring the desired results, it could well work in his favor, setting the stage for a showdown between Anwar's "people power" and Mahathir's political might.

There is one more factor in Anwar's favor: time. Anwar is just 51, and many of those siding with him are the young, who make up a majority of the population. They can wait; Mahathir, 72, and Daim, 60, obviously cannot. Mahathir himself was a relative youngster when he was expelled from UMNO in 1969; a little over a decade later, he was in the PM's seat. If it is true that history repeats itself, the Mahathir-Anwar showdown could well turn out to be a waiting game.

- With additional reporting by Santha Oorjitham/Kuala Lumpur and other bureaus