ASIAWEEK 18 Sept 1998 | By Sangwon Suh and Assif Shameen / Kuala Lumpur
IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN a straightforward show of support for the prime minister - but for one man. On Sept. 5, Mahathir Mohamad was meeting with some regional leaders of his United Malays National Organization (UMNO), the dominant party of Malaysia's ruling coalition. He used the occasion to allow one of his vocal supporters, Supreme Council member Ibrahim Ali, to lash out at former deputy PM Anwar Ibrahim, controversially dismissed by Mahathir three days earlier amid accusations of illicit sexual activities and other offenses. As the PM was about to wind up the meeting claiming unanimous support for the sacking, state assemblyman Kamaruddin Mohamed Nor stood up to voice his objections. The longtime Anwar ally told Mahathir that if only he would allow people to speak their minds, he would realize there was much less conformity of views. Furthermore, Kamaruddin said, the evidence being cited for Anwar's alleged sexual misconduct was flimsy.
"Under Islamic law, a Muslim who accuses another of adultery better have solid, corroborative evidence," he said. "False or less-than-solid evidence is punishable by 80 lashes under Islam's shariah law. Since I am not convinced there is enough evidence, as a Muslim I have to register my dissent." Kamaruddin later told friends that irrespective of what happens to Anwar, "I have to answer to my creator one day."
Whether motivated by his conscience or simply a desire to defend an old friend, Kamaruddin's was a defiant act. The sacking of Anwar as deputy PM and finance minister, and his expulsion from UMNO and the party's deputy presidency, has stunned not only Malaysia but much of the region. At home, ordinary Malaysians have been flocking to Anwar's house in droves to show their support. Abroad, says Abdul Razak Abdullah Baginda of the Malaysian Strategic Research Center, "many in ASEAN are shocked - they didn't expect [Anwar's dismissal]." Anwar's aides say ASEAN dignitaries have called their boss to commiserate, most notably Indonesian President B.J. Habibie. Philippine President Joseph Ejercito Estrada describes Anwar as "a good friend." He adds: "Prime Minister Mahathir has allowed pride to get the better of him, at the expense of his people and country."
Precious few Malaysian government and party officials agree with such sentiments, at least not openly. During a late-night UMNO Supreme Council meeting held on Sept. 3 - a day after Anwar was stripped of his cabinet posts - he was given the chance to defend himself. None of his peers present offered their support. Instead, they asked him to resign from his party post; he refused. Anwar left the meeting early; as he departed from the building, he signaled to his grassroots supporters gathered outside that he had been axed by running his finger across his throat. As expected, Mahathir announced half an hour later that his onetime heir apparent had been expelled from UMNO. The reason? "We find him not suitable, that's all," said the PM.
By then, the consequences of crossing Mahathir were already apparent to Anwar's family, who experienced firsthand how far the government was prepared to go to move them out of their official residence. At precisely 5:30 p.m. on Sept. 2, as of when Anwar was no longer the deputy PM and finance minister, "electricity was cut off and we had to use a backup generator," says his wife Wan Azizah Wan Ismail. "Next day, they cut off the water. We knew Mahathir was going to be very petty, so we moved as quickly as we could to our own house." As soon as the sacking was made public, Wan Azizah paid a visit to Mahathir's wife Siti Hasmah (the two official residences of the PM and deputy PM are just a few hundred meters apart). "She's aways been very motherly. When I got to her house we both looked at each other and cried," says Wan Azizah. "She told me: 'I am so sorry. My husband would not have fired your husband if he wasn't convinced all the allegations on sex, leaking official secrets and endangering national security were true.' " When she heard those words, says Wan Azizah, she left.
THE OFFICIAL ISOLATION OF Anwar continued in the days following his removal. The docile local press gave front-page coverage to the government line and the lurid details of Anwar's alleged sexual improprieties. Various UMNO leaders came out one after another to express their support for Mahathir. Most urged Malaysians to put their trust in Mahathir, saying there must have been good reason to sack Anwar. Typical was the statement from Foreign Minister Abdullah Badawi, who said that the PM must have had solid evidence to act as he did. The exact nature of this evidence, though, was left unclear. When asked about Anwar's denials, Abdullah replied that it was up to the accused to prove his innocence, adding: "I'm sure there is proof against him too."
Such professions of faith have so far failed to satisfy many Malaysians. Among them are, naturally, Anwar supporters. The Muslim Youth Movement of Malaysia (known by its Malay initials ABIM), of which Anwar was once the leader, claims that vested interests in the government were responsible for their former leader's ouster. "We believe there is a political conspiracy," says current head Ahmad Azam Abdul Rahman. "There are some people with political interests who thought the ascension of Anwar as PM would affect their political life."
Many ordinary Malaysians are also among the skeptical. "There is some discontent on the ground and people are very confused," admits a pro-Mahathir MP. An ethnic-Indian pharmacist, visiting Anwar's home on Sept. 6 as a "concerned citizen," expresses that kind of confusion and resentment. "The local press is very deceptive," he says. "Why was [Anwar] suddenly disposed of? There are so many things which are not normal - the legal process, the case against him." According to well-placed UMNO sources, a recent official opinion poll revealed that nearly 70% of those questioned did not believe the charges against Anwar. "Mahathir owes the people of Malaysia a lot more than a smorgasbord of [incredible] allegations," said a statement from the local human-rights group Suaram.
In an attempt to boost the government's position against Anwar, Mahathir sought to clarify matters in a meeting with UMNO grassroots leaders on Sept. 8. It was his first public statement on the affair since Anwar was thrown out of the party. Addressing some 3,000 division leaders and other officials, he explained that low morals had led to Anwar's dismissal. He initially did not believe the sexual allegations, he said, but was eventually left with little choice in the face of witness testimonies. "I did my own investigation and questioned all the witnesses myself and came to the conclusion that Anwar was guilty of moral misconduct and therefore not fit to lead the country," he said. Mahathir also expressed regret for the high-profile sacking, saying he would have let Anwar go quietly if the latter had agreed to resign. "I brought him into UMNO," he reminded the gathering of party stalwarts. "He was my friend."
It was, by all accounts, a masterly performance. The PM was a picture of calm confidence, assertive yet magnanimous enough not to directly attack his former deputy. Instead, he painted himself as someone betrayed by a trusted protégé conniving to challenge him. The audience was moved enough to give Mahathir a standing ovation. Others, though, were less impressed (among them a young UMNO delegate who shouted, "Lies, lies, lies!", before walking out in the middle of Mahathir's address). The PM may have revealed the steps leading up to the dismissal, but he still had not offered any evidence of Anwar's alleged misdeeds.
That might change soon. The police are continuing to investigate the allegations against Anwar. S. Nallakaruppan, a sometime tennis chum of Anwar, is currently in police custody under the Internal Security Act for illegal possession of ammunition (the offense carries a mandatory death sentence). In relation to the case, police recently filed affidavits claiming that Nallakaruppan acted as a middleman who arranged for Anwar to have sexual trysts with both men and women. In addition, the allegations went, Nallakaruppan gave Anwar millions of dollars during the 1995 general elections and could have leaked state secrets through his access to the ousted leader.
For his part, Nallakaruppan has denied all the charges, claiming that, with the threat of the death penalty hanging over his head, police tried to coerce him into signing statements implicating the ex-deputy PM. Anwar himself maintains that the allegations are part of a "high-level conspiracy" hatched by his political enemies. Some of his associates accuse Domestic Trade Minister Megat Junid Megat Ayub, Kedah Chief Minister Sanusi Junid and the PM's political secretary Aziz Shamsuddin of masterminding the anti-Anwar campaign. They claim that the trio, who felt Anwar was getting too powerful, poisoned Mahathir's mind against his erstwhile deputy. Other Anwar supporters blame Special Functions Minister Daim Zainuddin, saying he was angry that Anwar was not giving preferential treatment to his business interests and those of his close friends.
NOTWITHSTANDING THE LURID DESCRIPTIONS in the media of her husband's alleged sexcapades, Wan Azizah has stood gamely by her man. "I know he's innocent," she insists. "He is the father of our six children. He's an honest, deeply religious man." Not to mention a charismatic leader and a born warrior. Anwar has promised to fight back; he says he will launch a reform movement to eliminate corruption and repression, vowing to take his struggle to the people.
If support for his cause grows among the grassroots, he could well turn out to be a formidable opponent for Mahathir. A former student radical, Anwar is known as a tireless agitator and a fiery orator. Glimpses of his activist past could be seen immediately after his sacking, when he declared in a press statement: "Justice will not come as a gift. We must fight for it."
Then on Sept. 4, he addressed a crowd of some 2,000 while attending Friday prayers at a mosque. Launching into an impassioned speech, he called on the people to fight for their rights and threw pointed, if rhetorical, questions at Mahathir and his cronies: "For how long do you want power? For how long do you want to monopolize wealth? How much longer do you want to cheat the people?"
For all his populist appeal, though, Anwar faces an uphill battle - and not just because an arrest is hanging over his head. He lacks the support of a crucial element - political machinery. His new-found status as a political outsider has led many friends and supporters to desert him. Most of his former UMNO colleagues have been rallying around Mahathir - and for a good (if self-serving) reason. As an establishment party, UMNO "is able to dole out patronage," says academic and social activist Chandra Muzaffar. That means money, protection, contracts, cheap shares and other perks for its members.
Outsiders, on the other hand, can expect to be politically marginalized due to their limited funds. If especially unlucky, they might even discover that they are targets of a full-blown persecution. "A lot of people learned that from the Razaleigh split in 1988," says Chandra. That was when onetime finance minister Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah broke away from UMNO and formed a new party following his failed bid to unseat Mahathir. The government subsequently blocked bank loans to some of his supporters, to the detriment of their businesses.
Still, Anwar's charisma, networking skills and popular support may be able to compensate for any lack of patronage from UMNO. His cause can draw support from his old youth group ABIM, as well as from members of UMNO's Youth wing, many of whom are discreetly loyal to Anwar. For now, he is keeping his options open as to whether he should form a new party or work with existing organizations.
AS FOR MAHATHIR - and the country in general - what lies ahead? One story currently making the rounds is that Mahathir, who had a multiple heart-bypass operation in 1989, is ailing (those attending the Sept. 8th UMNO session were twice asked to pray for the PM's health). According to this theory, one reason Mahathir's associates pushed him into acting against Anwar was that they did not want to see Anwar succeed him should his health break down. Now with the No. 2 post wide open, many powerbrokers are seeking to dictate their terms and make deals for the post-Mahathir era, whenever it comes.
Mahathir has said that he would not be naming anyone to replace Anwar as deputy prime minister. Instead, a new position of senior minister could be established, a leading candidate for which is Foreign Minister Abdullah. This, however, doesn't mean he is the heir apparent. Traditionally, the deputy president of the party has also filled the position of deputy PM - and hence that of the PM's anointed successor. Next year, at least three candidates are expected to run for the deputy presidency: Abdullah, Razaleigh (now back in UMNO) and Education Minister Najib Tun Razak. None has an outright edge. A complicating factor is that all have at some point been at odds with Mahathir.
Manu Bhaskaran of Singapore-based SG Securities Asia says that the uncertainty in the political succession reduces the attraction of Malaysia in the eyes of foreign investors. "Just like people used to ask: After Suharto, who? Now it is: After Mahathir, who?" he says. Malaysia was always seen as one of the most politically stable countries in the region, with a long history of smooth successions. "All this was a big plus for investors. But now, the political risk premium in Malaysia has risen dramatically." That risk premium will rise even more if the government arrests Anwar and cracks down on dissidents, as many human-rights groups and oppositionists are predicting.
Moreover, Malaysia, once one of the most open of the region's economies, has just put up restrictive capital controls, in direct contradiction of conventional free-market theory. "The massive reflating and pump-priming measures will work in the short run by boosting growth and pushing up the stock market," says Bhaskaran. "But in the long run, the pain will far outweigh the temporary gains of the coming months." Coupled with the increasing political risk, this is likely to put a further damper on investment inflows.
That probably won't overly concern Mahathir, who has never put too much stock on what foreigners say or do. A more pressing concern is the domestic situation - namely, Anwar's challenge. For now, the government seems to be letting Anwar agitate on the periphery, in the hopes that he will fade away eventually. Whether Anwar does or not hinges partly on the speed of the economic recovery. If the new exchange-control measures, which Anwar has blasted as a "jingoistic outburst," do not bring the desired results, it could well work in his favor, setting the stage for a showdown between Anwar's "people power" and Mahathir's political might.
There is one more factor in Anwar's favor: time. Anwar is just 51, and many of those siding with him are the young, who make up a majority of the population. They can wait; Mahathir, 72, and Daim, 60, obviously cannot. Mahathir himself was a relative youngster when he was expelled from UMNO in 1969; a little over a decade later, he was in the PM's seat. If it is true that history repeats itself, the Mahathir-Anwar showdown could well turn out to be a waiting game.
- With additional reporting by Santha Oorjitham/Kuala Lumpur and other bureaus
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