REACHING CRITICAL MASS | Anwar has the rallies; Mahathir has the clout

ASIAWEEK 25 Sept 1998 | By Assif Shameen and Sangwon Suh
THE AUTHORITIES DID EVERYTHING they could, short of resorting to force, to prevent the evening rally. The meeting hall where the gathering was supposed to take place was padlocked and the electricity disconnected. Local radio stations continually broadcast that a police permit had not been issued for the meeting. When the crowds began to form, the police told them to disperse as the speaker was probably not going to turn up - and even if he did, he could not address them since he did not have clearance to do so.

In the end, though, the pulling power of the speaker prevailed. By 10 p.m., some 20,000 people had congregated outside the meeting hall, undeterred by the fact that there were no lights and it was pitch-dark. A collective cry of jubilation greeted the speaker, the recently sacked deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim, as he climbed atop his parked car with a microphone. While the crowd chanted, "Reformasi, reformasi! [Reforms, reforms]," Anwar lived up to his reputation as a fiery orator. "I want to wipe out corruption!" he told his cheering supporters. "I will never give up!"

To an outsider, the Sept. 13 rally - which took place near the southern town of Malacca and was part of a quick weekend tour of three states by Anwar - might have seemed like a relatively tame exercise by an ousted leader in making a few political points. But in the Malaysian context, the meeting and others like it are nothing short of a direct confrontation with the government. While political rallies are allowed, no more than four people can assemble in public without a police permit (larger gatherings at home can be held without informing the authorities). Opposition parties conduct their meetings indoors in assembly halls and even those need a permit, which isn't always forthcoming. The rules are relaxed only every five years, when campaigning for general elections takes place.

Now Anwar is shaking up this state of affairs. Two weeks after he was controversially fired by PM Mahathir Mohamad amid unsubstantiated allegations of sodomy, adultery and treason, the onetime student activist is continuing to attract huge crowds in his (technically illegal) rallies across the country. A day before the Malacca gathering, Anwar was in Pokok Sena in Kedah state, less than 10 km from Mahathir's birthplace and constituency. At least 60,000 people turned out to see him. "I am really reinvigorated by the Kedah crowd," a sleepy-eyed Anwar later told Asiaweek. "I expected a big crowd, but we also knew it was the PM's area. The numbers we got were amazing, way beyond our wildest expectations." He adds: "After I have been charged and tried in the local media, it is heartening to see that rural folks don't believe in government propaganda."

Anwar, who maintains that the accusations against him are part of a high-level conspiracy by his political enemies to frame him, says he has been forced to take his case directly to the people because he has been given no chance to rebut the allegations, which local newspapers have been giving daily coverage to. Anwar now plans to take his road show farther afield, visiting such states as Kelantan and Sabah. "As long as I am allowed to, I would like go around the country and explain why we need reforms now," he says.

That Anwar's campaign seems to be gaining momentum has not escaped the notice of Mahathir's United Malays National Organization, the most powerful party in the ruling coalition. "The rallies are getting bigger and Anwar is becoming a concern," says one ranking UMNO leader. "But who knows how many of these guys are genuine supporters and how many are curious onlookers? This will fizzle in a month or so, or as soon as specific charges are laid against him."

That sentiment is shared by many other UMNO leaders, who are expecting Anwar to eventually fade away into political oblivion. Without the perks and privileges provided by the party, a politician cannot last long in Malaysia, as can be attested by former deputy PM Musa Hitam and former finance minister Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. Both men spent years in the political wilderness following their failed bid to unseat Mahathir in 1987. A former UMNO MP points out, however, that Anwar belongs to a different breed. "Anwar is not like Musa or Razaleigh," he says. "He is a street fighter like Mahathir."STILL, IT CANNOT BE denied that Anwar's already limited clout in the political sphere is rapidly diminishing. Knowing which side their bread is buttered, the majority of UMNO leaders have come out in support of Mahathir's decision to sack him. The few whose sympathies openly lie with Anwar are finding themselves under pressure. Foremost among them is UMNO Youth chief Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who indirectly criticized Mahathir for alleged nepotism and cronyism during the party's general assembly last June.

In the aftermath of Anwar's dismissal, Zahid has come under fire from other Youth wing members for failing to pledge his support for the PM. "We've lost faith in the ability and credibility of Zahid to lead the movement," says Zein Isma Ismail, a member of the Youth wing's executive council. Despite calls for his resignation, Zahid has refused to quit, saying he would leave it up to the UMNO Supreme Council to decide his fate. Other Anwar supporters in the Youth wing facing an uncertain future are secretary-general Saifuddin Nasution, Penang chief Abdul Rahim Ghouse and Negri Sembilan head Ruslan Kassim.

Perhaps confident that its position remains solid, the government has so far refrained from cracking down on Anwar's road show. There is, of course, another reason for the official leniency. Well-placed UMNO sources point to the ongoing Commonwealth Games in Kuala Lumpur. "Queen Elizabeth is going to be here soon, along with the entire British tabloid press," says one insider. "The last thing Mahathir wants right now is for reporters to spoil the Commonwealth Games by focusing on Anwar." Anwar himself jokingly told a foreign television crew: "They haven't taken me away because you guys are around and the Commonwealth Games are still on."

But once the athletes go home, the gloves may come off. The betting is that after the Games end on Sept. 21, Anwar will be charged with anything from sexual misconduct to sedition and treason, and perhaps even detained. (Already, says the former deputy PM, several of his associates plus his adopted brother have been arrested.) Inspector-General of Police Rahim Noor also says Anwar will be charged for holding unauthorized rallies.

Assuming Anwar is imprisoned, this doesn't necessarily mean the road ahead is going to be easy for UMNO. "Next year's UMNO elections will be the most fiercely contested in the history of the party," predicts a former UMNO minister. "Even if Anwar is in jail by then, the elections will be divisive. The wounds from the contest to fill the vacuum left by Anwar will take years to heal."

Anwar himself is trying to make the best of whatever time he has left. In addition to traveling around the country to mobilize support and build up a popular power base, Anwar has been producing audio and video tapes of his speeches and press conferences since the ouster. Websites, too, have emerged in support. "The tapes are selling very well," says Anwar. "I have tried to tell my side of the story. If I get arrested, hopefully there will be enough tapes around to reach all corners of the country." He adds: "In Iran, Ayatollah Khomeini started his revolution by spreading his tapes." What if the authorities ban them? "They can't kill the spirit of reform and change." The question is how that spirit of reform will fare if the man who gave it life is behind bars.

- With additional reporting by Santha Oorjitham/Kuala Lumpur